Stop. Look. Listen.

Now that the BP well seems to be under control, there are three different approaches that are being floated…

#1) Resume the oil flow – this seems to be the idea that the litigation lawyers and government bureaucrats favor. To be able to resume gathering oil, first the pressure has to be let out of the well – which would mean three days of oil spill, then metering the amount of oil produced. The reason is to put an “accurate” number on the actual amount of oil leaked by the well to put the largest $$$ on it – ignoring that there was 2200 psi of hydrostatic pressure, the oil flow was obstructed by the drill string being bent and the flow was non-uniform…

#2) The Relief well strategy – the 1st relief well is within a couple feet of the “bad” well – the plan is to intersect it at a 2 degree angle – basically wedge in and “take over” the original hole from the side – and then pump in mud and cement once the well pressure is stable

#3) This one is now being floated from unnamed sources, but makes the most sense if risk aversion is the goal. Now that the flow is stopped, turn the original BOP choke and kill lines back to their original purpose. Don’t risk the integrity of the well – just pump in the mud using the standard process to kill and cement the well. With the top sealed, the mud won’t spurt out the top. It may however run out of the bottom, in which case things get more problematic and #1 may be the only option until most of the pressure has been drained from the reservoir…. or #2 used to set a “seal” below the mud to prevent it from leaking out….

Two things I learned recently – the Deepwater Horizon did not start this well. Another rig had originally done some of the drilling, and had to be taken off because of hurricane damage last year. The Deepwater Horizon came in later to “finish” doing the drilling. That could explain some of the issues with not being aware of the status of the BOP.

Another little detail was that at some point, testing equipment got stuck in the well and they couldn’t get it out…. so they had to back up and angle the well away from where it was blocked…..

In a now unreachable part of Pennsylvania, at the coal town named Centralia, a fire in an underground coal seam has been burning since 1961.

The government has figured out no way to stop the fire, and it could well be burning centuries from now. The best the government was able to do was to pay people to move out of town.

Centralia Coal Seam Fire

NY Times description

The weather is going to be quiet for 7 to 10 days, so BP (at the direction of the Obama Administration) is going forward with their next plan – to removing the existing containment cap and cutting off the couple feet of riser still attached – back to the flange at the top of the BOP. By doing that, they can get a complete tight seal on the BOP, which might completely stop the spill flow.

If you think that BP might still be trying to convert this into a producing well, what they are doing is consistent with that. Once the well is no longer spewing, people’s attention will go elsewhere. They might just then connect the well to the existing underwater pipeline system and be done with it…. or the second relief well might be converted instead to a replacement bore into the same field.

The standalone riser that can be left in place if the ships have to flee from a hurricane is in place and will be hooked up to the new containment cap. The other ship now on the scene can handle a larger rate of oil flow.

Once the new flow is stopped, then the cleanup can really start in earnest.

Unless the well bore itself has been damaged, or the BOP is damaged when the full pressure of the well is contained.