Brexit for Breakfast

My hypothetical question turns out not so hypothetical. England and Wales voted to leave the EU, Scotland and Northern Ireland want to stay. It’s pretty logical that proximity to the channel tunnel might be a factor.

I wrote back on June 1st that Donald Trump would be in Scotland this morning. Those who didn’t stay up all night in Europe are waking up about now. Since Trump just arrived, I don’t know when he will pop up on TV.

Now we get to see how the process works out. Nothing actually happens until the enabling legislation is passed. That might take 5 years.

TXexit – bring it on!

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29 Responses to Brexit for Breakfast

  1. Fred Stiening says:

    Woohoo – stock market futures are down 5%!

    Freedom isn’t free. Hope your basement is full of ramen noodles!

  2. Fred Stiening says:

    British Pound down 10% vs the Dollar, oil crashing 7%

    European credit markets are not open yet. Japan stock market down 8%, European stock futures are up, but you have to be careful whether an index is in its native currency or was converted to dollars.

    The global bankers aren’t going to let Brexit happen. All those theoretical stress tests over banks failing are now not hypothetical – they are weapons of war.

    The bear is charging at England. Will they stand firm or get scared and try to run back to their safe space?

  3. Fred Stiening says:

    It’s approaching 3 AM ET

    European and British stock futures are down 10% – the underlying markets are not open yet. I suspect 10% is a circuit breaker limit down. US stocks futures are moderating. The big “winner” is the Bank of Japan.

    Central banks around the world are implementing their plans to flood the world with fake wealth to solve any liquidity crisis that might trigger bank failures

    One thing Gordon Chang pointed out a few days ago was the collapse in liquidity in Hong kong’s banks, reflected in an 80% increase in overnight interbank lending rates. Right now, Hong Kong and China are on very different trajectories.

    Vlad Putin probably started his day cracking open a bottle of Scotch. Even if he didn’t cause Brexit, his poker hand just added two aces

  4. Fred Stiening says:

    Conservative Party Prime Minister David Cameron says he will step aside in three months, but he will not invoke Article 50 of the EU Charter, which triggers an irreversible exit from the EU. That will be up to the next PM, unless of course Britain gets scared and elects a “Remain” controlled Parliament

  5. Fred Stiening says:

    Central Bank intervention propping up equity markets is incredibly fantastic to watch in real time

    • CC1s121LrBGT says:

      If you can print as much money as you want whenever you want, why not have accounts at your member banks that buy up futures and options to lead the market in the direction that keeps the donor class’s assets growing and keeps the separating donor class from the working class? There are countless examples of the central bankers whispering information to their member banks so they can front run the public, and Congress has exempted themselves from insider trading laws. These are all facts .

      • Fred Stiening says:

        Bank of England, European Central Bank and Switzerland are already publicly announcing they are actively propping up markets – which was obvious at 3 AM… Asia markets mostly closed at 4am. As big as the pot of virtual gold is in Europe, we won’t know for sure until the US based trading desks arrive at work, those that still employ humans

        One of the reforms (no idea if it is in place or enforceable) was that after a certain % drop, algorithmic trading needs to stop to prevent a catastrophic positive feedback loop

        • CC1s121LrBGT says:

          The big banks make big levered bets and when they don’t work out for them, the central planners come in to rig the market so that they don’t lose. I’m not a socialist but Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are correct that the system is rigged. The solution would be free markets and less insider rigging / central planning, but they espouse more of it.

      • Parrott says:

        Hear, Hear ! Bravo CC !!

        >”and Congress has exempted themselves from insider trading laws”<
        I heard dreadful hairy reid went to congress a pauper, but he leaving a millionaire ! ( But he took a ass whooping a year or two ago) so many have become millionaires. That punk Mark warner D VA is supposedly super mega rich now. If you get in congress, you get on that gravy train, the sky is the limit !
        SOB's and I don't mean sweet ol' boys,
        parrott

  6. CC1s121LrBGT says:

    Although he is famous around the world today, I posed this 84 second clip on SRG years ago. Today, it remains the best short summary of Brexit and is still quite entertaining. Enjoy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypLwI5AQvY

    • Fred Stiening says:

      I understand the attraction of the UKIP as London looks less and less British. If you grant them their wildest wish and expelled all immigrants and children of immigrants, it would not make London “English” again. It would make it empty.

      There is no reserve of 20 something English people to repopulate London. Several generations of English ashamed of their culture and not having children is where England is now. Nature abhors a vacuum.

      • CC1s121LrBGT says:

        London voted by a large majority to REMAIN in the UK, as did Scotland and Northern Ireland. People on Bloomberg were talking about “The City” (the financial industry of London, similar to the US term “Wall Street”) moving to Frankfurt or perhaps over to Dublin.

        There was even talk of London seceding and becoming a city-state and a member of the EU. Talk of Scotland having another vote to leave the UK and remain in the EU, and talk of Northern Ireland leaving the UK and rejoining with the Republic of Ireland.

        As I had posted here two weeks ago, an Irish friend in the US informed me, to my surprise, that since the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland came to be, migration has transformed Northern Ireland into a Catholic majority rather than the Protestant majority it had been in the 1900s.

        My take is that the non-democratic, “appointed” nature is a main issue, as is an unclear separation of power between Brussels and the member countries.

        My prediction is that European unity will live on but that its role will be more explicitly defined and narrower than it had been. I expect a “Constitutional Convention” of sorts where the nation states define what that means and then take it back to the people to ratify, and it would not surprise me to see the UK as a major player in that discussion.

    • Fred Stiening says:

      The line about Belgium not even being a real country was particularly aggressive – and true

  7. Fred Stiening says:

    The markets are now open. There are no surprises – Gold is up about 5% (still a long way from Glenn Beck’s prediction of $10,000 an ounce). US interest rates plummeted as money flows into the dollar. US stocks are off about 2.5% which is what the futures predicted. I would not be shocked if the market closes up for the day. Oil is down about 5%, but that is merely reflecting that the dollar went up 5% vs the Euro and pound, not that the value / price of oil changed.

    The weak EU countries – Italy, Greece and Spain are being hit hard in their stock markets.

  8. briand75 says:

    Glenn Beck’s head needs to explode so we can move on with life. Brexit – best idea the UK has had since Margaret Thatcher.

    Quinn’s first law: Liberalism always achieves the opposite of it’s stated intent. The EU was supposed to bring European nations into the fray as an economic factor. The exact opposite is the outcome. Go UK! God save the Queen!

  9. CC1s121LrBGT says:

    Nilüfer Demir – Do you know who that is? She almost single highhandedly led to the Beexit and the end of the EU by a simple thing she did last summer that led to a chain of events.

    • Fred Stiening says:

      One of my challenges is remembering what I blogged vs private conversations.

      The instant I saw that picture, I believed it to be staged propoganda to open the immigration floodgate. That’s not to say the child wasn’t dead – but it painted immigration as a cute white child, when most of the people who were arriving were refugees from subsaharan Africans without the skills or desire to help Europe

  10. Fred Stiening says:

    The BBC is in full combat mode hoping to lead a movement to overturn Brexit. Putin is preparing to crush England, the economy is going to collapse, government benefits are going to dry up, France is going to destroy us

  11. Fred Stiening says:

    The powers that be had a year to plan for this. Friday looked very much like the first day the US Stock market reopened after 9/11. The market dropped 5% at the open, then stayed flat all day. I’m certain the amount of drop (and increase in gold) was the results of prearranged collusion in the event of the unexpected outcome. Nobody panic, everyone stay away from making portfolio moves – just absorb it. If a market player seems to be fighting our plan, shut them down.

    The banks are meeting this weekend to develop a real plan. Monday might be just like Friday, or it might be September 2008 all over again.

  12. Parrott says:

    Ha Ha way to go Brits ! Now grow some balls and get your firearms back !
    You lost them about the time you adopted that EU BS.
    That would be _ _ _ ___-__ awessome! Take that Illuminati !
    why does ‘Seal’ on the podium for the British prime Minister have a Lion, and Unicorn ?

    they just need some ‘Skittles, on the seal.
    parrott

  13. Fred Stiening says:

    Markets are calm, so far. Asia markets are closed. China went up a little

    Europe is calm, except for Sweden. British pound drifting down, but not in panic. Bank of England is prepared to print £500 million in fake wealth to prop up the currency.

    Gold and oil are flat. US is a little stronger, interest rates dropping some more

  14. Fred Stiening says:

    Looking over the vast portfolio, the pattern that is emerging are stocks reliant on exporting are the one getting clobbered because the stronger dollar means other countries can’t afford our stuff – food, fertilizer to grow food, seed companies, railroads to move the food, anything related to making cars.

    What is up are real estate and utilities.

    • CC1s121LrBGT says:

      That’s why the Republicans and Democrats resurrected the Export-Import bank – so that with US middle class help, the foreigners will be able to buy these products cheaper than Americans? Remember how the Soviets were able to buy American farm products cheaper than families in Iowa due to the generosity of the Republicans and Democrats?

  15. Fred Stiening says:

    It’s rebound day. Everything that was down is up. Everything that was up is down. The invisible hand has spoken.

  16. Fred Stiening says:

    A significant real estate fund in the .uk is blocking redemptions and the pound keeps going down. England is being punished. Oil is plunging again.

    In September 2008, I hung in out of a misguided sense of loyalty to capitalism, which George W Bush proved was misguided. I don’t see any reason to think stocks will go up and lots of contingencies that would make them go down. Caveat Emptor.

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