Wisconsin Recount Update

It takes a little work to create a useful spreadsheet but worth the effort.

There are 3,636 precincts to be recounted, with 3,285,426 votes
As of the Spreadsheet posted December 2nd,
recounts of 346,133 votes (10.5%) are complete.

Muddying the waters is that in the city of Milwaukee, absentee and provisional ballots are being recounted at a central location, which means they are currently omitted from the counts. About 1/5 of all votes cast in the city were absentee or provisional.

Of the precincts that have completed their recount in the city, the absentee and provisional ballots are running 11:1 for Hillary. For the city as a whole, Hillary won 4:1. In theory, provisional and absentee ballots should not be significantly different than the population as a whole. My guesstimate is there 7,000 fraudulent ballots for Hillary so far in Milwaukee and probably 40,000 over all.

Wisconsin used to have a problem with welfare recipients double dipping in the city of Chicago and Milwaukee. Greyhound and Amtrak did a brisk business with people riding back and forth to pick up their checks. Since everything is EBT and direct deposit now, they don’t even have to do that anymore.

If you back out the Milwaukee ballots for now, the net change so far (10.5%) is

Jill Stein       +24 (Menominee only reported Trump and Clinton)
Gary Johnson     +13
Hillary Clinton   +3
Donald Trump      +5
Day 3 Update  (26%)

Jill Stein       +41
Gary Johnson     +28
Hillary Clinton  +45   Net +2
Donald Trump     +43
Day 4 Update  (34%)

Jill Stein       +41
Gary Johnson     +19
Hillary Clinton  +71   
Donald Trump    +110   Net +39
Day 5 Update  (42%)

Jill Stein       +31
Gary Johnson     +19
Hillary Clinton  +63   
Donald Trump     +84   Net +21
Day 6 Update  (54%)

Jill Stein       +50
Gary Johnson     +42
Hillary Clinton +142   Net +3   
Donald Trump    +139 
Day 7 Update  (72%)

Jill Stein       +50
Gary Johnson     +42
Hillary Clinton +492   Net +82  
Donald Trump    +410 
Day 8 Update  (83%)

Jill Stein       +64
Gary Johnson     +63
Hillary Clinton +557   Net +60
Donald Trump    +497 

Cleaned up spreadsheet attached now

day 6

day 7

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7 Responses to Wisconsin Recount Update

  1. Fred Stiening says:

    Does anyone else think of Red Skelton and moon creatures when you hear the word Menominee?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cK5pl6W2CFE

  2. Fred Stiening says:

    So what is the upper bound or reasonableness of the ratio of Hillary to Trump votes before fraud or voter intimidation is the likely explanation?

    Let’s assume blacks in Milwaukee vote 95% for Hillary and some wards are 100% black, that would make the ratio 19:1. Let’s look at wards that were 35:1 or more and see if we see a pattern to the polling locations:

    Ward    Trump Clinton   Ratio   Location
    ----                   ----   -------------------
    
    Ward 61	 19	732	38     New Hope Missionary Baptist Church
    Ward 62	 15	566	37     New Hope Missionary Baptist Church
    Ward 63	 8	547	68     New Hope Missionary Baptist Church
    Ward 64	 31	1,223	39     Thirty-Fifth St School
    Ward 66	 10	656	65     Parklawn YMCA
    Ward 101 24	944	39     DPW Field Headquarters
    Ward 104 26	1,138	43     Boys & Girls Club - Mary Ryan
    Ward 105 3	469	156    Keenan Health Center
    Ward 106 10	429	42     Children's Outing Association
    Ward 107 7	691	98     Ben Franklin School
    Ward 108 13	649	49     Ben Franklin School
    Ward 109 8	728	91     Ben Franklin School
    Ward 110 3	417	139    Children's Outing Association
    Ward 111 6	525	87     Children's Outing Association
    Ward 112 13	641	49     Metropolitan Baptist Church
    Ward 113 10	556	55     St Mark's Quality of Life Center II
    Ward 114 7	500	71     St Mark's Quality of Life Center II
    Ward 115 13	863	66     Douglas Complex School
    Ward 116 10	438	43     Douglas Complex School
    Ward 117 5	581	116    LaFollette School
    Ward 118 16	610	38     Green Bay Ave Playground Fieldhouse
    Ward 119 14	609	43     Martin Luther King Jr School
    Ward 120 11	567	51     Martin Luther King Jr School
    Ward 121 10	671	67     Rose Park Senior Center
    Ward 142 12	538	44     Northcott Neighborhood House
    Ward 143 8	531	66     North Division Campus School
    Ward 144 9	405	45     Northside YMCA
    Ward 145 2	244	122    Boys & Girls Club - Lavarnway
    Ward 146 1	242	242    Boys & Girls Club - Lavarnway
    Ward 147 14	857	61     Gwen T Jackson School
    Ward 148 15	635	42     Phillis Wheatley School
    Ward 149 10	734	73     Frances Starms Disc Learning Ctr School
    Ward 151 6	430	71     Center Street Library
    Ward 155 11	460	41     Washington Park Library
    Ward 156 17	659	38     Washington Park Library
    Ward 160 9	601	66     Washington High School
    Ward 162 8	355	44     Housing Authority
  3. Fred Stiening says:

    In fairness, not wanting to be called racist, here is the list of polling precincts statewide that voted 5:1 or more for Trump

  4. Fred Stiening says:

    I’m convinced Alex Jones is correct. The plan is that Democratic controlled areas will drag their feet and fail to complete the recount by December 13th, missing the Federal deadline and causing the electors to not vote on December 19th

    Stein has withdrawn her challenge in Pennsylvania and is shopping for a Federal judge to intervene. President Obama already explained the Federal Government does not make the rules for state elections.

    Michigan is on hold due to a challenge by the Trump folks

  5. Fred Stiening says:

    The Federal “safe harbor” deadline is next Tuesday. This 42% is the low hanging fruit – feeding a stack of optical scanning forms back through the machine another time. The typical precinct has around 1000 votes. Doing that probably can recount about 300 an hour, so should have been completed in a day IF there are people to do the work.

    If a federal judge can force Michigan to recount, I am confident he can delay the meeting of electors. Since we have fedex now instead of the pony express to hand deliver the certified results to Washington DC, we have a little extra buffer

  6. Fred Stiening says:

    So if nothing unusual happens in Milwaukee, Hillary should finish up about +105 votes, a bit short of the 20,000 she needs

  7. Fred Stiening says:

    The Federal judge has refused to call off the Wisconsin recount.

    Milwaukee County says they have finished their recount
    http://www.wisn.com/article/milwaukee-county-completes-historic-recount/8481873

    That may not mean what it sounds like. The City of Milwaukee has its own election commission. That would be great news if the statements includes the city. Time is running out

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