Archive for the ‘Collapse of the EU’ Category

Is Donald Trump going to cause a baby boom?

Saturday, January 28th, 2017

After World War two ended, couples (including my parents) were deferring thoughts of family stuff, and the pent up demand broke loose with a boom felt around the world.

I have the sense that the 44th president, whose name I cannot remember, caused entire generation of young people to be fearful about the future.

Now we have the President of the United States setting the example of passionately holding the hand of the prime minister of the United Kingdom

My apologies for not giving attribution for whichever photographer took this picture at the White House. Forget Camelot – unless I’m misreading the body language, Trump is being a role model of what a man should be to the millions of young people maybe getting the message that is OK for men to like women and vice versa. Maybe it’s time to invest in factories that make wedding cakes, even if they won’t make one that is for gay people.

Just looking at the statistics here, people seem to be away doing other kinds of things. Eight years is a long time to wait.

The really big deal about Deutsche Bank

Monday, September 26th, 2016

Deutsche Bank owes $14 billion to the United States for its role in 2008 mortgage fraud crisis. The bank says it was thinking $3-4 billion and it won’t pay. The reality is it can’t pay even if it wanted to. The ongoing “what if” stress tests show it as the most vulnerable to failing in a financial panic. Up until today, Merkel’s government has said it won’t step in to save the bank (ala Lehman brothers). Today, that changed to “might step in”. The stock is tanking.

Why should we care if a German Bank goes under? Deutsche Bank is the 11th largest bank in the world with $1.9 trillion in assets. (China has 4 of the top 5)

From the US perspective, Deutsche is beyond “too big to fail” – it is a Primary dealer In US securities at the New York Federal Reserve, meaning it has direct access to buy and sell US Treasury instruments and engage in things like Repurchase agreements, which are used to fudge the liquidity of banks.

Germany is the only thing holding the EU together. We remember how the failure of Lehman almost sent the Global banking system over the cliff… but Lehman was a US Bank. The US government, FDIC and the Federal Reserve government proxy have no obligation to intervene. Deutsche is backed by the Euro, not the US dollar.

The interbank Euro LIBOR rate is negative, meaning banks are willing to lose money to avoid holding Euros overnight. The Euro is about as healthy as Hillary Clinton.

Broad Selloff

Friday, September 9th, 2016

No, not Hugh Hefner or Melania Trump

There have been lingering rumors that Deutsche Bank in Germany is on the verge of collapse. North Korea exploded another nuclear bomb. Hillary has a glint in her ear. The Congress is ready to provoke Saudi Arabia into economic conflict.

Of the 34 individual stocks I own, only one is up as of 11:00. If interest rates shoot up, stocks will go down. The good news is no income tax for this year! đź’¸

Theresa May Brexit

Monday, July 11th, 2016

David Cameron said originally that he would linger on as Prime Minister, but not take any action to actually Brexit and leave it to the next Prime Minister. Forces in Europe were very loud that this was unacceptable. They can live with Brexit or they can live with no Brexit, but they can’t live with indecision.

Cameron will resign Wednesday and be replaced by Theresa May, who is being framed as similar to Margaret Thatcher. A straight forward, hard as nails Conservative. She currently says “Brexit means Brexit”

Missing the message

Sunday, June 26th, 2016

A guest in John Batchelor was a classic case of “projection”, where you inject your own opinions onto other people, believing they share your motivations.

The guest said multiple times that the motivation of the people who voted for Brexit was “they want to be rich”. Not even close. They are fed up with being trapped in their homes, unable to walk down the street without being attacked by groups of unemployed immigrates who hate England. The EU declaring that the UK would be fined for each immigrant they refused to accept was probably the last straw.

Brexit for Breakfast

Friday, June 24th, 2016

My hypothetical question turns out not so hypothetical. England and Wales voted to leave the EU, Scotland and Northern Ireland want to stay. It’s pretty logical that proximity to the channel tunnel might be a factor.

I wrote back on June 1st that Donald Trump would be in Scotland this morning. Those who didn’t stay up all night in Europe are waking up about now. Since Trump just arrived, I don’t know when he will pop up on TV.

Now we get to see how the process works out. Nothing actually happens until the enabling legislation is passed. That might take 5 years.

TXexit – bring it on!

Today’s mass casualty in Germany

Thursday, June 23rd, 2016

As the details emerge, the first reports start getting corrected.

The BBC seems to be reporting details omitted by other version. The event at a cinema started when a woman called police that there was a man wearing a mask with a long gun.

Initial reports were that 25-50 people had been shot by the gunman… “Wounded”

As it turns out, nobody was shot by the gunman. The gun was either a toy or shooting blanks. All of the “wounded” were people overcome by the use of tear gas inside an enclosed space. Using tear gas in a closed room is a major no-no. It can cause organ damage or even death.

The “gunman” was arrested, then shot, then shot after he was dead if headlines can be believed. It would be interesting to know what movie was playing. Presumably we will eventually know more details and whether he supported Brexit

Why a vote for Brexit won’t matter

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2016

If the Thursday vote results in a majority voting for Britain to leave the EU, it will have as much effect as electing Republicans to repeal Obamacare.

The vote has no legal effect. It is only an advisory vote. The Conservative Party headed by David Cameron opposes Brexit.

The people can vote all they want, but it is the Party that chooses what to do.

That’s not to say a Leave vote is without consequences.

Pro immigration British MP stabbed and shot 3 times using homemade gun

Thursday, June 16th, 2016

Shooter is in custody.

Bilderberg Weekend

Tuesday, June 14th, 2016

While we were busy trying to find out if Omar Mateen is gay, the Bilderberg group was meeting in Germany to discuss the state of the world, including that pesky Donald Trump guy.

Alex Jones is clearly one of Trump’s major sources of news.

For your amusement, here were the US Attendees (published on their web site)

Altman, Roger C. – Executive Chairman, Evercore
Altman, Sam – President, Y Combinator
Applebaum, Anne – Columnist Washington Post; Director of the Transitions Forum, Legatum Institute (Amazon)
Burns, William J. – President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Cote, David M. – Chairman and CEO, Honeywell
Engel, Richard – Chief Foreign Correspondent, NBC News
Ferguson, Jr., Roger W. – President and CEO, TIAA
Ferguson, Niall – Professor of History, Harvard University
Graham, Lindsey – Senator
Hobson, Mellody – President, Ariel Investment, LLC
Hoffman, Reid – Co-Founder and Executive Chairman, LinkedIn
Jacobs, Kenneth M. – Chairman and CEO, Lazard
Johnson, James A. – Chairman, Johnson Capital Partners
Jordan, Jr., Vernon E. – Senior Managing Director, Lazard Frères & Co. LLC
Karp, Alex – CEO, Palantir Technologies
Kissinger, Henry A. – Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Inc.
Kleinfeld, Klaus – Chairman and CEO, Alcoa
Kravis, Henry R. – Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.
Kravis, Marie-JosĂ©e – Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Levin, Richard – CEO, Coursera
Makan, Divesh – CEO, ICONIQ Capital
Malcomson, Scott
– Author; President, Monere Ltd.
McArdle, Megan – Columnist, Bloomberg View
Micklethwait, John – Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg LP
Mundie, Craig J. – Principal, Mundie & Associates (Microsoft)
Murray, Charles A. – W.H. Brady Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
Noonan, Peggy – Author, Columnist, The Wall Street Journal
Petraeus, David H. – Chairman, KKR Global Institute
Schmidt, Eric E. – Executive Chairman, Alphabet Inc. (Google)
Thiel, Peter A. – President, Thiel Capital

If you want the entire list as a spreadsheet