How will President Trump govern?

Unless he “rules” by executive order, any change he wants to make to laws will require 50 supporters in the Senate (60 if someone wants to filibuster). 54 Senators are currently Republicans, but 24 are up for reelection in 2016.

Will people vote for Trump and their Senator if the Senator doesn’t support Trump?

Let’s look at the Republican Senate

First NameLast NamePartyState2016?MarginComments
JohnBoozmanRARSafeNon-commital
MichaelCrapoRIDSafe
JohnHoevenRNDSafeSupporter
JohnnyIsaksonRGASafeSupporter
JamesLankford ROKSafeSupporter
MikeLeeRUTSafeVirulent Anti Trump
JerryMoranRKSSafe+19
LisaMurkowskiRAKSafe
RandPaulRKYSafeLibertarian
TimScottRSCSafeMaybe
RichardShelbyRALSafeSupporter
JohnThuneRSDSafeSupporter
RichardBlumenthalDCTSafe
PatLeahyDVTSafe
PattyMurrayDWASafe
BrianSchatzDHISafe
ChuckSchumerDNYSafe+32
RonWydenDORSafe
BarbaraBoxerDCARetiringD vs D
HarryReidDNVRetiringR +9
DanCoatsRINNot running
DaveVitterRLANot runningTepid
BarbaraMikulskiDMDNot running
KellyAyotteRNH*-3Tepid
RoyBluntRMO*+4Tepid
RichardBurrRNC*Supporter
ChuckGrassleyRIA*
RonJohnsonRWI*Tepid
JohnMcCainRAZ*Oppponent
RobPortmanROH*+5Supporter
MarcoRubioRFL*+3Opponent
PatToomeyRPA*-7Tepid
MichaelBennetDCO*+15
LamarAlexanderRTNOpponent
JohnBarrassoRWYFierce anti-Trump
CoryBookerDNJOpponent
ShelliCapitoRWVSupporter
BillCassidyRLASupporter
ThadCochranRMSSupporter
SusanCollinsRMENeutral
BobCorkerRTNSupporter
JohnCornynRTXOpponent
TomCottonRARSupporter
TedCruzRTXOpponent
SteveDainesRMTTepid
MichaelEnziRWYStrong Supporter
JoniErnstRIA
DebFischerRNE
JeffFlakeRAZOpponent
CoreyGardnerRCOOpponent
LindseyGrahamRSCOpponent
OrrinHatchRUTStrong Supporter
DeanHellerRNVOpponent
JamesInhofeROKTepid
Mark StevenKirkRILOpponent
MitchMcConnellRKYTepid endorsement
DavidPerdueRGASupporter
JimRischRIDSupporter
PatRobertsRKS
MikeRoundsRSD
BenSasseRNEOpponent
JeffSessionsRALSupporter
DanSullivanRAKTepid
ThomTillis RNC
RogerWickerRMS
AngusKingIME
BernieSandersIVT
TammyBaldwinDWI
SherrodBrownDOH
MariaCantwellDWA
BenCardinDMD
TomCarperDDE
BobCaseyDPA
ChrisCoonsDDE
JoeDonnellyDIN
RichardDurbinDIL
DianneFeinsteinDCA
AlFrankenDMN
KirstenGillibrandDNY
MartinHeinrichDNM
HeidiHeitkampDND
MazieHironoDHI
TimKaineDVAVP Choice
AmyKlobucharDMN
JoeManchinDWV
EdMarkeyDMA
ClaireMcCaskillDMO
RobertMenendezDNJ
JeffMerkleyDOR
ChrisMurphyDCT
BillNelsonDFL
GaryPetersDMI
JackReedDRI
JeanneShaheenDNH
DebbieStabenowDMI
JonTesterDMT
TomUdallDNM
MarkWarnerDVA
ElizabethWarrenDMA
SheldonWhitehouseDRI

If you sort by 2016?, you can see what is possible in January 2017

– 5 senators are not running – 3 are Democrats (CA, MD, NV)… California and MD are safe Democrats that Trump has zero chance of winning
– 10 races are considered “possible to lose”, 9 are Republicans
– only 10 Democrats are running

Most optimistic case is Trump would face 56 Republicans, 13 of which oppose his agenda. The only way Trump gets anything through the Senate is with Democratic Party Support. Worst case is the Senate has Democratic majority of 55 seats and 13 angry Republicans. That’s enough votes for removing Trump from office via the impeachment process.

Of course, every House seat is up for election, so it is hard to put boundaries around what might happen there.

It’s a starting point – as the realities sink in, things will change. Maybe in two years, president Trump will have the clout to knock out incumbent Senators

This entry was posted in American Politics, Donald Trump. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to How will President Trump govern?

  1. Fred Stiening says:

    If Republicans don’t outright lose the Senate, Chuck Schumer has lots of perks he could offer Republicans to switch parties and give Democrats control of the Legislative process

Leave a Reply