Results match up with the numbers already in the guesstimate – Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins everything else. Rubio underperformed all the poll estimates. He has no chance to win any state (although he won Puerto Rico and DC). His goose is cooked. <\/p>\n
An error on my part was giving Trump Ohio’s delegates even if Kasich won. Trump does not have enough to win on the first ballot. California is clearly now going to decide this issue. It’s the only pot of delegates not already in the Trump pile he can grab.<\/p>\n
Kasich will likely stay in – of the three likely nominees, he would do the best in November against Hillary or Sanders. But there is no way he can win on the first ballot. If Trump quits (as opposed to suspending his campaign), Kasich will be the nominee. He is palatable enough to establishment Republicans and likely to pick up the disaffected Bernie voters in November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Results match up with the numbers already in the guesstimate – Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins everything else. Rubio underperformed all the poll estimates. He has no chance to win any state (although he won Puerto Rico and DC). His … Continue reading