The focus is now turning to the electoral “college” vote – to win in November, a candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes.<\/p>\n
Refining my estimates, I’ve applied the latest nationwide polls where there is not a state one vs one poll, and narrowed the safe goalpost to 55%. Since Hillary currently has a +2 polling lead, that means states where Barack Obama won by more than 53% are safe for Hillary. Conversely, a state had to vote by 57% for Romney to still be safe Republican.<\/p>\n
If you accept those sketchy assumptions, the safe electoral votes are<\/p>\n
Hillary 248 Trump 173 If you apply the same math – that any state that voted more than 42% for Obama (55-13) is safe for Sanders and only states that voted 68% for Romney (55+13) are still safe for Trump – you get<\/p>\n Sanders 416 Trump 38<\/strong><\/p>\n The opposing argument is it doesn’t matter what the margin of victory is – 270 and you win.<\/p>\n Only slightly related, the vile John Fund over at National Review online telegraphed the #nevertrump strategy for the Convention. The “thinking” is that since 40% of the delegates are pledged to Trump, but oppose Trump – they will just refuse to vote on the first ballot. Paul Ryan is being coy for a reason – he will be the person to rule on the legality of pledged delegates refusing to vote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The focus is now turning to the electoral “college” vote – to win in November, a candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes. Refining my estimates, I’ve applied the latest nationwide polls where there is not a state one … Continue reading
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\nHowever, the most recent Sanders vs Trump polls have Sanders +13 (admittedly before Trump clinched the nomination – nobody cares any more)<\/p>\n