UK based Reuters continues its meddling in United States politics with their latest poll showing Hillary with a 45-33% lead over Trump<\/p>\n
If that was accurate, you would expect many state polls to show a larger than 12% lead to average out the entire country. Which states show Hillary with a > 12% lead?<\/p>\n
\r\nNew York - +26%\r\nWashington - +16%\r\nVirginia - +16%\r\nCalifornia - +16%\r\nWisconsin - +13%\r\n<\/pre>\nThat’s about it. <\/p>\n
Polling general populations ignores the electoral realities. Clinton wins California if the margin is 1 vote or 5 million votes. Unless those people move to another state, the excess margins mean nothing. If 100,000 Texans moved to Charlotte, then it might make a difference. This is one of the few states that is clearly not going to know until November 8th. We’re going to get really tired of Hillary and Trump.<\/p>\n
In my own model, Hillary is going to win in November by a comfortable margin if there isn’t some major shift between now and then.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
UK based Reuters continues its meddling in United States politics with their latest poll showing Hillary with a 45-33% lead over Trump If that was accurate, you would expect many state polls to show a larger than 12% lead to … Continue reading