{"id":16428,"date":"2016-09-04T13:41:29","date_gmt":"2016-09-04T17:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/?p=16428"},"modified":"2016-09-04T13:44:46","modified_gmt":"2016-09-04T17:44:46","slug":"why-likely-voters-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/?p=16428","title":{"rendered":"Why “likely voter” matters"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reuters (Drudge) has a 5 day rolling average tracking poll out now showing Trump with a 2% lead, if you filter by likely voters.<\/p>\n

Reuters poll (as filtered by Drudge)<\/a><\/p>\n

If you turn off the likely voter filter and filter only to registered voters, it switches to +5 for Hillary (41-36%) and if you filter to everyone, including people not registered to vote, it goes to +6 for Hillary (39-33%)<\/p>\n

Looking at respondents, 83% say they plan to vote, which is a lie. Turnout in 2012 was 58% of the Voting Eligible Population. The key thing that influences the predictability of polls is how they determine “likely voter”. Asking “do you plan to vote in November?” is worthless. “Are you a Republican or Democrat?” is almost as worthless. The private polling looks at the actual voting history of an individual.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reuters (Drudge) has a 5 day rolling average tracking poll out now showing Trump with a 2% lead, if you filter by likely voters. Reuters poll (as filtered by Drudge) If you turn off the likely voter filter and filter … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[154],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2016-election"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16428","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16428"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16428\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16435,"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16428\/revisions\/16435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/streamingradioguide.com\/startingover\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}