I harped on this from the beginning – Trump’s attempts to do the things he wants are dependent on US Senate support. With 24 Republicans up for reelection \/ replacement, the most optimistic outcome was 56, short of the 60 needed for cloture.<\/p>\n
Well, Republicans did not pick up Harry Reid’s Nevada seat, and lost in Illinois and New Hampshire, the total is 51. Louisiana is a mess – 9 “Republicans” were on the ballot, including David Duke. That made a runoff necessary – on December 9th. If Republicans win that race, the US Senate will have 52 Republicans.<\/p>\n
Louisiana race<\/a><\/p>\n In 2001, “Republican” Jim Jeffords (VT) switched parties, moving the Senate from 51-49 to 50-50. To avoid deadlock, Republicans agreed to a power sharing agreement.<\/p>\n So what does Trump do? Can 8 Democrats be convinced to become Republicans by bribing them with Committee chairmanships or pork projects? Will Trump persuade Democrats to support his agenda? Will Republicans go with the nuclear option and change the filibuster rule?<\/p>\n A thin margin leaves Trump vulnerable to a “gang of eight” insurgancy. His Senate “majority” includes Ted Cruz, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Mike “#nevertrump” Lee, and Marco Rubio. Are they reliable allies?<\/p>\n Having only a two vote margin has several crippling implications. Firstly, it leaves Trump open to political extortion – you want this, I want this – or I don’t vote for your wall. This also largely rules out picking a US Senator to take a Cabinet position, like John McCain to run the Department of Defense. Each state has different rules of how vacancies are filled and when\/if special elections are held. The honeymoon is over. Democrats will wake up from their knockout punch. Will they be conciliatory or aggressive?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I harped on this from the beginning – Trump’s attempts to do the things he wants are dependent on US Senate support. With 24 Republicans up for reelection \/ replacement, the most optimistic outcome was 56, short of the 60 … Continue reading