By “Win”, I mean – can the Republicans get control of the US Senate with a big enough majority to not face filibusters if the Republicans win the Presidential race and they retain control of the House.<\/p>\n
There are 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans today.\u00a0\u00a0 In 2012, there are 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans who will be running for reelection or retiring\u00a0<\/p>\n
(8 have already announced they aren’t going to run again – Kohl(D-WI), Lieberman(D-CT), Kyl(R-AZ), Conrad(D-ND), Hutichisson (R-TX), Webb (D-VA), Bingaman(D-NM), Akaka(D-HI)<\/p>\n
So assuming that no other Senators retire early or switch parties… there will be\u00a030 incumbent Democrats and 37 incumbent Republicans.\u00a0\u00a0 If every Republican wins (not likely), there would be 70 Republicans and 30 Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 If every Democrat won, there would be 66 Democrats and 37 Republicans – that’s the theoretical range of possibilities.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 To be “filibuster proof” (like a\u00a0repeal of Obamacare) would require Republicans to win 23 out of 33 races.<\/p>\n
Should Republicans win control of the Senate, but not<\/span> President, then the important number is the presidential veto override, that requires 2\/3 or 67 Senators (plus 2\/3 of the House).\u00a0\u00a0 To have 67 Senators would mean the Republicans would have to win 30 of 33 races, pretty close to impossible.<\/p>\n So those are the realistic outcomes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By “Win”, I mean – can the Republicans get control of the US Senate with a big enough majority to not face filibusters if the Republicans win the Presidential race and they retain control of the House. There are 53 … Continue reading