Media types and Political pundits are pushing you to accept as a fact that when the Republicans win control of the House, John Boehner will become that Speaker of the House.
It doesn’t work that way. Unlike the Senate, the House does not operate based on Seniority – it was based on the concept of the House of Commons in England – it is meant to be the voice of the people, not the “Lords” who have been in charge forever.
The Constitution says nothing about the process of how the Speaker of the House is chosen. “Tradition” is that members of both parties vote for their candidate, and the larger party wins.
If the optimistic goals are met, there will be 100 new Republican members (out of 435) will be insurgents sent to Washington to change things. Some of them will have won primaries over the opposition of the Republican Establishment. (think “Tea Party”)
It’s within the realm of possibility that the Democrats realizing there is no point in supporting a Democrat for Speaker might align themselves with a group of anti-Tea Party Republicans and choose someone who is politically pliable.
From the official House web site:
“The Speaker is elected by the House on the first day of a new Congress. Customarily, the caucus or conference of each major party first elects a candidate at early organizational meetings. When the new Congress convenes, each party places the name of its candidate in nomination, and the majority party’s candidate is typically elected on a party line vote.”
Boehner being Speaker is also dependent on him winning his own re-election. He is being challenged by Justin Coussoule – a married graduate of West Point, and former Captain in the U.S. Army. He currently works for Proctor and Gamble in purchasing. (“He has a real job in business”). He is an attorney and is 35 years old. Nobody in Washington is even bothering to take polls in this race. The Word of the Year for 2010 has been “unexpectedly”.
Boehner has been in the Politics game since 1985 (first in the Ohio House). Boehner ran a small business for a few years after he was discharged from the military for medical reasons. His education is a BA degree in business from a Catholic University in Cincinnati.
Boehner’s prior races have been won about 65% to 35%, so it is not likely he would lose – but the next few months probably have many surprises.
I don’t know much about Boehner, but the way he distanced himself from Paul Ryan’s (WI-1) fiscal plan spoke volumes. Boehner strikes me as the “Country Club” Republican who just wants to be secure in his nigh-lifelong career in politics.
As to your suggestion that the Republicans will turn anti-Tea Party, I submit the process has already started. If there’s any doubt about that, look no further than Mitch McConnell’s rebuke of Rand Paul in TN.
I hear a lot from hosts like Levin and Rush that a third party will never do anything more than steal Republican votes. But I believe the times have changed. We’ve seen what the Republicans bring to the table. While Reagan is a hallowed name today, he had little impact on the judiciary, House and Senate elections during his terms tilted Democrat, and he pushed through amnesty. I half-jokingly tell people the last conservative POTUS was JFK. I also tell them that Islam is an apostate faith to any Christian that cares to get his/her head out of the Love Tent.
This era is unique in many ways. People are finally starting to see elected officials for what they almost always are. Yes, I take issue with career politicians, but Ron Paul is an exception. He’s always trying to do what I believe most true conservatives would advocate. Maybe this nation is ready for something other than the Red Pill or the Blue Pill. I doubt it, though. We haven’t fallen far enough yet.
I agree with phistar in that it has already started.
I’m talking about the “ruling” class versus the “working class” Republicans.
But the Tea Party (can’t we coin our own name and not just accept the media label?) candidates can effectively shut down the govt. until the ruling class republicans get smart enough to wake up and smell the coffee.
Besides, when the govt. is shut down they can’t spend trillions!
But that won’t stop the Federal Reserve from effectively doing the same thing.