Exactly as I predicted (and I’m not a military man just an ignorant civilian – as a 30 year veteran pointed out to me on the WSJ web site), the Kaddaffi military took the bypass road around Ajdabiya.
They drove around the town, and are now in between the city of Ajdabiya and the next city up the coast – Benghazi, the end of the road. The figthers with their defensive Maginot line barricade were outflanked – and the government troops are now behind them – in between them and retreat. They have a pretty binary choice now – surrender or die or fade into the civilian population.
Over in the West between Tripoli and Tunisia the last rebel held city fell. The figthters can see there is no point to keep fighting. Qadaffi has offered amnesty for those who give up. (Good luck on that!)
The government troops will be at the gates of Benghazi on Wednesday. The G8 isn’t giong to put up a “No fly zone”. The Arab League wants someone else to do it as long as that someone else doesn’t get involved militarily. NATO has a little problem of no legal jurisdiction – Libya has made no attack (recently) on a member of NATO. The UN will be holding an urgent meeting any day now to discuss setting up a committee to consider the options.
Hillary is going to Egypt and Tunusia today after meeting with the “rebel” leaders in Paris. Look for an announcement of the terms of surrender and/or providing sanctuary to the “Libyan government in exile” in Paris. That wasn’t what Hillary was expecting to happen, at least I don’t think so. The only question left is to find a way for Barack Obama to “save face”.
“Well, when I said Kadaffi was no longer the legitamite leader of Libya and he had step down and go, I didn’t literally mean he had to step down and go. This all happened because I was misled by George Bush’s plan to bring democracy to the Middle East.”.
The town of Misrata – the port city near Tripoli that isn’t involved in the oil export business – is now under siege. The water has been cut off, the food… the navy is blocking any incoming aid. This is the prototype for the Siege of Benghazi.
An option open to the government troops having easily rolled over this city – is to send troops on to Tubruq and cut off the escape route for any people fleeing to Egypt and control the supplies going into Benghazi. Just the threat they might do that could cause the rebels to get a head start on their mad dash to get to Egypt and “safety”.
If the Provisional government doesn’t quit or flee and forces the destruction of Benghazi and a siege, blocking access from the East is a logical next step along with a sea blockade of the port. Except for the tiny refinery in Tubruq, Qadaffi now has complete control of the oil fields and oil ports.
When you’re down to your king and two pawns and the other side has their queen, 2 bishops, a rook and a knight, the outcome is not in doubt – only how long you want to prolong the pain.
Listening to some news tonight, it sounds like there are still lots of rebels in Ajdabiya…. but it doesn’t really matter – it’s a city of 130,000 people – it’s main significance is being a place where a couple inportant roads meet. By cutting access to the road to Benghazi, the city will quickly run out of food, water, electricity, etc… and the civilian population will eventually shoo the rebels away.
One report said that when the assault on the city started, it wasn’t one or two planes but “a flock of them”. As Gadaffi gets the west under control, the momentum is in his favor. People in the military who thought he might fall will return to their jobs… the planes will start to move to airbases closer to the East… the logistic supply chain will catch up. Right now his biggest risk is overextending his reach and outrunning the logistics and have the tanks or planes run out of fuel, food, water, etc…
There are a couple other cities of significant size in Eastern Libya, but Benghazi made itself the focus. Gadaffi has said (and I believe him) that he doesn’t want to destroy Benghazi. Their plan is to surround the city and wait – and leave just one avenue of escape for the rebels to get them out of the city. The Libyan military (contrary to some of the media reports) is working very carefully to mitigate damage to infrastructure and random killling of civilians. But if you’re a reporter and you’re riding around in a pickup with a Rebel, don’t be surprised when a missile lands in your lap.
“Turn off the lights, the party’s over.”
It was over when Kaddaffi decided to stay and fight.
Is there any governmental body less effective than the UN? Weren’t they supposed to mediate these type of military actions? And where in the UN charter does it give them the right to ram Global Warming, er … Global Climate Change, down our throats?
And after stiffing the Libs on Club Gitmo, and stiffing the Gay Rights crowd (the pun was unintended, really) on Don’t AskDon’t Tell, is he now really gonna stiff all the Muslims who gave him all the illegal campaign contributions by not interceding, kicking Kaddaffi out, and handing Libya (a country with Lib in the name!) over to the Muslim Brotherhood?
I’m just saying …..