Republicans cannot repeal the Obamacare bill. That’s the bottom line. No amount of huffing and puffing or attending Freedom Concerts will change that.
Just as the Senate is there to slow down spur of the moment emotions of the masses (aka the House), the Constitution also works in both directions.
Barack Obama is the President of the United States, whether you like or accept that. He has the power to veto any bill a Republican Congress might pass to repeal his Health Care Plan.
To override the veto of The President requires a 2/3 vote of both houses (67 in the Senate, not merely 60).
So to repeal any Obama legislation before 2012 requires Republicans having 67 Senate seats. They have 41 today. Only 1/3 of the Senate is up for election each 2 years.
So in 2010, there will be 34 senate seats up for election. There will be 2 extra partial term seats up for election. Of those 36 seats, 18 are currently held by Republicans, 18 by Democrats.
If every single Senate race was won by Republicans (not likely), that would leave the Senate with a 59 member Republican majority – not even enough to stop a Democratic filibuster, let alone override a presidential veto.
There are things that may be done – like court challenges, electing Republican Attorneys General in the state – but any Republican who asks you for money to repeal Obamacare in 2010 is either lying or stupid or both.
There are two possibilities that would result in a repeal before 2012:
1) Obama caves. This is not out of the realm of possibility. As we saw in the second GW Bush term, if a President is hounded enough on something that is extremely unpopular (e.g. the mandatory insurance purchase), he can be persuaded to change his mind more easily than you think. This would likely be only a partial victory and a repeal of only the most controversial measures.
2) Two-thirds of the states invoke Article V of the constitution and force a constitutional convention. That would basically neuter both Congress and the President, but it’s never happened before (it’s come close a couple of times).
1) No way that’s going to happen
2) Republicans control both houses in only 14 states. Even if a convention was called and proposed amendments (the purpose of Article 5), it still requires 4/5ths of the states to approve any changes.
It sounds like you’re disagreeing with me, but you’re not. Voting and sending money to a Congressman or Senator in Washington will not repeal the bill in 2010.
The only way that could happen is if a large number of incumbent Democrats voted to override a veto because they are so scared of the backlash. There are a handful of moderate Democrats in the House.
Name me one Conservative or even moderate Democrat in the Senate you’re going to “flip” to vote against the Obamacare bill, even assuming the Repubicans won every Senate Race.