The new Republican strategy on health care: “repeal and replace.” Under the premise that they probably won’t be able to repeal the entire bill outright (at least until 2013 anyway), Mitch McConnell (the senate Republican leader) is proposing keeping some of the more popular proposals in the plan, but still working on repealing the most controversial parts of it (e.g. the individual mandates)– the stuff Obama is calculatingly avoiding talking about while he returns to the campaign trail. Will it work? I don’t know.
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Are there 26 Democratic Senators that will vote to repeal?. The best they can hope to do is get a majority in 2010, and then block everything else until 2012 – and maybe negotiate some compromises or hope the courts throw some part of it out.
Here are the 13 Democrats who are up for reelection in 2010 and not retiring:
Blanche Lincoln( (AR), Barbara Boxer(CA), Michael Bennet (CO), Daniel Inouye (HI)
Barb Mikulski (MD), Harry Reid (NV), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) Chuck Schumer(NY)
Ron Wyden (OR), Arlen Specter (PA), Patrick Leahy (VT), Patty Murray (WA), Russ Feingold(WI)
Open seats currently held by Dems:
(CT), (DE), (IL),(IN), (ND)
Vermont will NEVER vote out Leahy and I believe Inouye is probably safe. Looks like Boxer, Lincoln, Reid, Specter and Schumer will probably lose their seats, but the rest are a toss-up.
Who do you see beating Schumer?
Gillibrand (Hillary’s replacement) might lose if George Pataki runs, but he hasn’t announced yet that he wants the job…
There’s talk of Larry Kudlow getting in that race.
Even though the polls show him getting clobbered right now, I’ve looked at a lot of these polling companies and their numbers look awfully suspicious. For instance, the gubernatorial elections continue to show Andrew Cuomo with a ridiculous lead, and claim that even among Republicans, conservatives, and upstaters, a majority think Cuomo is “part of the solution” and not “part of the problem.” That is totally out of whack with common sense and I’d suspect out of whack with reality. So, with that in mind, I’m really suspicious of the polls coming out. They look cooked.
Schumer? You’ve got to be kidding! The New York Republicans are soo messed up, I’m surprised they don’t fold in that state.
How messed up are they? Remember that upstate election last year? And now instead of going with the Conservative in the Gov. race (Lazio). The state Republican party endorses a Democrat that for this race only, decides he will turn Republican.
Plus, I don’t think Schumer is up this year, doesn’t matter. Folks you have to realize and I hope this year I am so wrong but. Democrats own New York State.
His term is up, yes. Unfortunately, you’re right, it isn’t looking good unless Kudlow decides to get in.
With Gillibrand, the candidates are David Malpass (an advisor for Bear Stearns– yeah, that says about everything), Bruce Blakeman, and Joe DioGuardi. DioGuardi (if the name sounds familiar, her daughter Kara’s an American Idol judge) is my personal favorite, and is running on a deficit reduction platform. Blakeman and Malpass are jokes in my opinion. Then, of course, there’s Pataki, who still won’t do his business or get off the pot.
Schumer, other than possibly Kudlow, has no real opposition, and hasn’t had any for quite some time.
For governor… Cuomo hasn’t even acknowledged the race yet. The entire candidacy has been nothing but media hype. It would not shock me (though it would shock a lot of people) if he passed on the race. On the GOP side, in addition to Levy and Lazio, there’s Carl Paladino, a tough-talking Buffalo developer who’s the favorite of the Tea Party crowd and is considering a run on an independent line. Paladino has the most money of the three.
The reason both Schumer and Gillibrand are up is because Gillibrand’s is a special election– it only lasts for two years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP went lame on the first Gillibrand race and went hard after her in 2012.
Yeah, the state GOP and its evil twin the Michael Long Party (officially known as the Conservative Party) are pretty much toast everywhere except the Southern Tier, where the old-boys are still in power. Tom Reed has a really good chance of winning back Eric Massa’s old seat.
Here are the latest Intrade quotes:
Republicans to gain control of US house in 2010 – 39.0%
Democrats to retain US House in 2010 62.8%
(the total being > 100% is the “spread” being earned by those people risking their bets)
Republicans to gain control of the US Senate 11.1%