ADP payroll says we’re losing jobs, government says we aren’t – the reason for this difference is ADP doesn’t process paychecks for government employees.
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You are SO correct.
Where I work there is some contractor hires starting to happen, but no full time hires. That’s because the companies are still trying to estimate the impact of Universal Health Care bill.
And when the States start going belly-up and have to lay off it will only get worse.
But I have a question: why is the stock market so elevated when they are smart enough to see what’s coming around the corner?
Good question… Some partial answers:
1) the Fed is lending money at close to zero % to banks. People believe they will get out the door first before it drops
2) there is nothing else to invest in – state employee and union pension funds have a huge pile of money they have to invest somewhere each month. Treasury notes and bonds are paying almost nothing. More and more US businesses are owned by private equity firms so money invested in publicly traded stocks have fewer things to buy – and IPOs have screeched to a halt
3) Non Dollar investors consider changes in exchange rates in figuring profit and risk when parking their money here. In the absence of other factors, when the dollar loses value, US stock indexes go up – not because investors expect income but because cheaper dollars = cheaper stocks
at the moment, Europe is getting nervous about the Euro falling apart or sovereign debt defaults, and US Treasury rates starting back up and clobbering bond prices – so US stocks may be perceived as “safer”