Libya may be bigger than it appears in the mirror

If you don’t currently have a copy of Google Earth, it’s a great investment (It’s free!). While Google Maps is good, Google Earth renders in 3D and has lots of integration of things like photographs taken by people.

Google Earth was created by a company called Keyhole, and Keyhole satellites are the name from one type of orbital imaging platforms – I remember reading at the time Hubble was launched that the Hubble telescope was basically a Keyhole turned out toward space with different optics – so it isn’t a stretch to think that Google Earth’s roots go back to the government. One train of thought is the fastest way to create change in adversarial governments is to show their secrets (or show their people our prosperity)

So when you’re hearing the vague news reports – Libya is roughly 800 miles x 800 miles square.   The only part of the country that really matters is the coastal area on the Mediterranean and the oil.  It’s all about the oil.   Disclaimer:  Spelling of places in Libya is even more non-standard than Muamar Qadaffi’s name.

Libya has its own refining capacity and an oil supply [Map] that far exceeds its domestic needs.   Short of blowing up the refineries, any thought that Libya’s economy will collapse from international pressure or their tanks and airplanes will run out of jet fuel are misguided.   Before this started, they exported 30,000 barrels of jet fuel a day to Europe.

Libya’s important neighbors are Egypt and Tunisia.   South of the Sahara desert, you’ll find Sudan, Chad and “yellow cake” Niger…  Algeria is behind and to the South of Tunisia – if you keep heading West, you wind up at Morocco and the Straits of Gibraltar.  

John Batchelor is already dropping hints that the “end game” of whatever this is and who is behind it may be control of the Straits of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal, at which point Europe is totally screwed.   Russia would then “own” Europe.   

So Tripoli [Population 2.3 million] is quite close to the Western border with Tunisia (about 90 miles), and the western oil fields, including the deep water drilling out in the Mediterranean being done by BP.  

The western oil and gas production is entirely separate from the oil and gas fields near Egypt.  Libya’s high quality oil goes to Europe, the lower quality stuff to “Asia”.  So when you hear “the rebels have the oil fields” and “the government controls the oil fields”, they may both be correct.

Libya has five main ports for their oil (and other stuff)… here is a list.  Keep in mind that everyone is spinning the “truth” to support their point of view or objectives.

Zawiyah is the key city [Population: 180,000] – it is about 60 miles from Tripoli (about half way to Tunisia).   It is the terminus of the pipelines for the Western oil and gas fields.   It has an “export refinery” that handles 120,000 barrels a day.    A natural gas pipeline heads East from there to Tripoli and over to the Eastern oil fields.

Tripoli is the Capital and the city most under the control of the Military and least likely to fall to the enemy (whoever they are). 

Heading East, 120 miles along the coast you find Misrata [Population: 185,000] – a cargo port and a lot of people, but nothing to do with the oil or gas exports… 

Go another 150 miles down the Gulf of Sidra, and you arrive at Sirte [Population: 135,000-300,000?].  It’s the western end of the eastern oil/gas infrastructure, with a significant airport and government presence.    The Sirte Oil Company has a web site (that’s still online for now)…   The company was originally “Esso Standard of Libya” (as in Standard Oil – small world, eh?)… Exxon “left” the country in 1981 without explanation.  Hmmm… what happened in 1981 in the world…

Sirte appears to be under government control according to the above web site, which is not a surprise.  Heading East toward Egypt, we run into Ras Lanuf.  It has two air strips, a lot of refinery stuff, and a port – and very few people live there.  It’s in the middle of a desert.   There is no “local population there” to revolt.

Continuing East beyond the bottom of the Gulf of Sidra another 80 miles, we find Marsa El Brega.  [Population: 4,300].  It also has an air strip, refinery and storage capacity and relatively few people live there – most of whom probably work for the state run oil company.   You can’t have big cities without a dependable water supply in a desert.   Probably what they have is desalinization plants – turn them off and the town will be empty in a day.

Another 35 miles you find Ajdabiya [Population: 100,000] – along the coast is an empty beach, a bunch of oil storage tanks and a loading platform  – the town is about 10 miles inland from the coast on the road from Sirte to Benghazi.  This city is the end of the oil pipelines from the Eastern half of the country (with one minor exception).  

Continue North up the Gulf of Sidra another 100 miles and you arrive at Benghazi. [Population: 1 million]  It sits at the far end of the Natural Gas pipeline, but isn’t involved in the refining or export of oil.  It’s the second largest city in Libya.    Like many ancient cities, it is apparent looking at the streets that it had been a walled city – it was an ancient city settled by Greece in about 500 BC.  

According to Wikipedia (haha), Benghazi is now the “provisional capital” of Libya [See: Wheeling, West Virginia], and the center of the uprising and where most of the European media are getting their information.   Benghazi controls none of the oil or gas infrastructure, but it does have a university  and a convenient microbus system.   Too bad all the assets of Libya are now frozen.  It’s gonna suck to be there in a few weeks after the natural gas pipeline is turned off and the imports of food stop.

Russia Railways is currently building a railway to connect Benghazi with Sirte and eventually Tunisia and Egypt.   We have a suspect!    Russia in the Living Room with the Iron Wrench!   I win!  I have a clue!

Sarir (mentioned in the news story) is the big yellow blob in the interior – it is also an oil/gas facility with no people living there that aren’t part of the oil company.   It has an air strip.

Another 150 miles East of Benghazi close to the Egypt border on the Mediterranean is Tubruq [Population: 94,000].   The city is connected to Sarir by a pipeline and has a very small refinery and a significant population – probably the pipeline is to serve domestic use in Eastern Libya and Egypt and not important to the export of oil.

South of Tripoli and running over to Algeria is a small mountain range in the Sahara desert – it provides protection for several old relatively undeveloped  cities that are fairly isolated from the rest of the country:

So that’s the Map.   Let’s play Stratego!     Don’t sink my battleship!