Posts Tagged ‘AIG’

Moral Hazard

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Back during the crisis last year, when Rick Santelli – the floor trader in Chicago – first proposed the idea of a second tea party (did you forget that Howard Kurtz?), his helper jumped in saying “Moral Hazard! “.

Video

I don’t think most of the people watching, including the reporters who cover Wall Street got the significance of that shout out – because it is a term of art in the Insurance business, not on Wall Street.

A fundamental principle of underwriting insurance is making sure that you don’t create a “moral hazard” – a reason for the owner or beneficiary of the policy to behave recklessly because they know they have insurance.   In the extreme, they may deliberately cause a loss to enrich themselves. 

For instance, if you sold a disability policy that paid 125% of the normal salary, people would be motivated to injure themselves on purpose.   If you could take out a life insurance policy on another person with which you have no economic connection, you could be motivated to cause the death of that person.

AIG started writing policies (Credit Default Swaps – CDSs) that protected people from the possibility that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae’s mortgage backed securities (CDOs) would lose value.  Folks started buying the CDSs like crazy because they believed AIG was way underpricing the risk they were taking, and AIG was feeding a moral hazard.   They were incentivizing the entities buying the securities to CAUSE the failure of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.   The bulk of the federal bailout funds went right through AIG to pay off the people who benefited from the moral hazard of encouraging the reckless mortgage lending practices.

Japanese firm hires away traders from Bank of America

Thursday, April 9th, 2009

Reuters

Well, people warned Congress it would happen.

With the threat of punitive 90% taxes on their income and earnings caps on the truly talented in the financial services business becoming scapegoats, firms beyond the reach of Andrew Cuomo’s show trials and public intimidation are hiring away the very people who have the skills to prevent further collapse of the US banking and financial services industry.

Good job!… especially you Republican traitors in the U.S. House.

Showdown

Tuesday, March 17th, 2009

Congress – in order to deflect attention from their stupidity – is talking very stridently about the executives of “their” company AIG.

These are  incredibly stupid actions.   While the folks getting the bonuses may have played a role in the losses, threatening them is extremely stupid.  These are the only people who have the skills to unwind this mess.  One click of a button (or failing to click a button after they quit) and they can make the entire global economy lose $75 trillion.

The problem was that the government stepped in to bailout a failed company, not that the employees want their earned income.   The reason that there are bonuses at all is that Congress imposed a “salary cap” on “executives” and forced companies to pay employees based on performance.   If you don’t pay the “executives” what they were promised, they -will- leave AIG.  Will Chuck Schumer now force them to continue to work for AIG without paying them?

Fascism has arrived and it is bi-partisan.

AIG “investment” going sour

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Story here

Remember when the US Government stepped in to “Save” AIG?  (even though AIG is an insurance company and not a bank).  At the time, various people in the government suggested that in the long run, the taxpayers would make a profit.

Now AIG says it is going to convert the Preferred shares we (the taxpayers) bought into common shares.  They can’t afford to pay the 10% interest that the preferred stock requires.  That was the whole point – that this would make the “investment” temporary and force AIG to quickly pay off the US Treasury by buying back the preferred stock.

That’s not what AIG is proposing.  Like CitiGroup, they want to take the US Treasury from the front of the line to get paid, and put them at the end of the line – so if/when AIG declares bankruptcy the US Treasury is holding only worthless common stock.

The bizarre part of this notion is that AIG thinks converting preferred stock to common stock is -their- decision.  That’s not how preferred stock works.  The owner of the stock decides when or if they wish to exercise their conversion option, usually based on the common stock getting above the conversion price by enough to justify letting go of the guaranteed interest income stream.

They’re talking like they have a friend inside the US Treasury (Geithner comes to mind) who is agreeable to this.  It’s time to say “NO” to AIG.

What is going on here is that most people do no realize their life insurance policies and annuities have no government “insurance” protection. 

Insurance company policies are typically guaranteed by a state run Guaranty Fund.  The fund has no assets of its own – the only tool it has to stand behind insurance policies is to impose an assessment on the other insurance companies that haven’t failed (making them more likely to fail, also).   Unfunded Insurance Guaranty funds are completely unprepared to deal with the largest insurance company in the world failing.  

When people realize their insurance policies and annuities are at risk, a “run” can begin on insurance companies as people withdraw the “cash value” of their whole life policies or demand an early termination of their annuity. 

This has happened before – in 1933, regulators declared an “insurance holiday” to stop runs on the insurance companies.  Here is the story in Time Magazine from April 1933.