Posts Tagged ‘Citigroup’

“Too Big to Fail”

Sunday, June 21st, 2009

The concept of “too big to fail” banks is not new.    The concept was that there are a handful of banks in New York that would have catastrophic consequences if they fail, because so they hold so much money and are so integrated into the complete banking system could fail.   As a result, they have been quasi-nationalized banks all along.

For example, CitiGroup is a large operator in what is called Treasury and Cash management services for huge corporations.   Large companies like Wal*Mart have an extremely high velocity of money – when you buy something with a credit/debit card, by the time you’re at the door, the money is already gone from your account and on its way to pay suppliers ot pay for more inventory in the pipeline.  When currency is deposited by the store in a local bank, it is “swept” into a central cash management system at least once a day.   (Stores like to do cash advances because that converts the currency into immediate cash liquidity instead of having to wait for the armored truck to show up). 

If CitiGroup’s operations stopped – even if the customers didn’t ulutimately lose any money, the day to to day operations of their business has become completely integrated with CitiGroup’s cash management system.    By the time they could switch to some other equally large bank offering similar services, the entire inventory and cash flow and payroll processing could be disrupted.   

The Federal Government has encouraged this type of concentrated banking in a few hands by declaring that certain banks are “too big to fail”, and hence this is no risk to having all your corporate eggs in their basket.  Keep in mind that FDIC coverage is capped at $250k even for corporations – so FDIC protection is very limited for corporations.

Single points of failure are a really bad thing.  If you are concerned about survivability, when you become aware of single point of failure, you get rid of them – or if it can’t be gotten written of you take steps to minimize the damage from a failure.   The obvious solution is contained in the name.  If the problem is that a bank is “too big to fail”, you take steps to make the bank smaller and/or keep its hands out of the things likely to cause a failure.  Rather than promoting more and more consolidation into fewer and fewer huge global banks, a thoughtful “intelligent” policy at the U.S. Treasury would strive to dismantle the “too big to fail” banks, or at least break out the functions that are critical to national economic security from the portions of the big banks that might trigger a failure.   Bringing back something like Glass Stegall would be a large step in the direction, although it might be a bit like unscrambling an egg at this point.

Making money by losing money

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

Doublespeak here

Citigroup’s CEO Vikram Pandit caused a surge in the Stock market today with a “memo to employees” (Translation:  I’m not saying this to the SEC or directly to the public because if I’m not telling the truth, that becomes a criminal issue).

Once you read through the weasel word language (what is an “externally disclosed mark” that was excluded from the theoretical profit?), the substance comes down to – we made money because we have a $44 billion tax loss carry forward, that we will apply to future income.

This is the same thing that GM tried to do over the past few years – the reason their balance sheet fell apart was their auditors decided it is extremely unlikley GM has any chance of making a profit in the next 3 years – so those tax loss carryforwards were declared worthless and written off.

I believe today’s rally is a suckers rally.   Banks don’t make wealth – they just move it around.   Until Barack Obama and the Democrats drop the mantra that  profit=rich=evil=corrupt, this economy is headed nowhere.

*** Update ***

CitiGroup Execs make $4.4 million profit

Just before this “announcement” of a return to profitability, Citigroup executives bought up a bunch of their own stock.  This was probably completely innocent, but surely is going to invite an SEC investigation.  Tim Geithner says the SEC needs to regulate more.  Let’s see if he really means it – when it involves his personal friends at CitiGroup.

It’s official – CitiGroup caves

Friday, February 27th, 2009

Story here

Citigroup Common stock immediately lost 41% of its value.

*** Update ***
Since the US Government is moving its claim of ownership to the end of the line, Citigroup Preferred stock is zooming up – up 70%….

February 24 2009 – Big Speech Day

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Asia and Europe are mirroring the large loss in the US stock market today.  This could be the day CitiGroup gets “bailed” out again.

President Obama speaks to the nation tonight about the economy.  Fasten your seat belts.  The first plunge on the roller coaster is always the scariest.

Bank Bailout – Geithner still doesn’t get it

Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Or maybe even worse – maybe Geithner does get it and his purpose is to destroy the US Economy.

The US Treasury (and related agencies) have released the official statement about the talks with CitiGroup on Sunday.  The plan is little more than a vague plan to “pump more money” into the banking system. 

The only substantive change is to convert the preferred stock ownership (which had a guaranteed interest rate) into common stock ownership.  This moves the US Treasury to the end of the line if the bank fails.  You may remember Senator Dodd had said that in the long run, the first batch of TARP money would end up making a profit for the US Government.  That is now even less likely.

The stock market immediately headed down.  How many times does this have to happen before the people around Geithner realize he is the problem, not the solution?

Total carnage for today – US Stocks lost almost 4% today.  Time grows short for the leadership of this country to get a clue.

February 23 2009 – holding Europe together

Monday, February 23rd, 2009

European leaders are trying to figure out how to keep a unified strategy to fend off collapse, and not have each country pursuing their own interests. [good luck on that!]  Reading Material

The NY Times (and IHT which they own) and the Wall Street Journal say the US Treasury met on Sunday with CitiGroup to discuss converting the preferred stock the US Treasury holds into common stock.  This would take “debt” off the balance sheet, but squeeze out the existing common stock holders.  No cash is generated to CitiGroup by doing this.  It only changes the financial ratios to make them look less insolvent – and removes the obligation on the preferred stock to get paid “interest” first in line.   This is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  It doesn’t change the ultimate outcome.

The US Treasury is also talking to banks (CitiGroup?) about coming up with $40 billion in Debtor in Possession funding for a GM/Chrysler Bankruptcy.  According the accounts “Everything is on the table”.   I hope the UAW is ready to embrace “change”.

NY Times Forbes Reuters

Once the US Treasury can tell banks who to lend to and for what reason (or no reason), the lessons we didn’t learn from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will explode.   Expect CitiGroup to be forced to loan money now to a full range of businesses which have no chance of ever making a profit – to advance a political agenda and harvest a new crop of political party donations for the party in power or pay back favors to special interest groups (like the UAW).


Trading in Hong Kong [China] is up sharply (3%+).  Japan is down slightly, as one of the major Japanese lenders filed for bankruptcy protection, and signs that Japan may not be quite as strong as people had thought.

Markets in Europe are open, up about 1-2%

Pre-market trading in futures suggest the US Stock market will open about the same as Europe – up 1 to 2%