Afghanistan is not Iraq. The government of Afghanistan has no revenue source with which to employ (bribe?) its military and police. Iraq was a fairly modern society with a strong revenue stream and a population with many university educated people – the best and brightest people in Afghanistan in many parts of the country are illiterate.
Counter-insurgancy is expected to be the new economic / political / military strategy the president will announce this week – but the moment U.S. money stops, the government will fail, no matter how long we are there.