I have a theory…. when they cut off the riser, the oil flow may stop by itself :) In fact sea water may start going down the well….
The bore at the bottom is 9 5/8″, which means the area of the opening is pi * (r*r) = 290 sq inches (more or less)…. The bore at the top is 24″…. which means a surface area of 1,808 sq inches…
Per the prior post, the downward pressure of water @ 5000 feet is about 2200 ps… means the weight trying to go down an unobstructed hole is 2200 x 1808 = 3,977,600 pounds
The figure I’ve heard quoted (might be wrong) is that oil/gas at the depth this is at is probably at 30,000 psi – meaning it is exerting a push upwards of 30,000 * 290 = 8,700,000 pounds
The well itself is 10,000 feet in height (might be 15k – not sure)… so the weight pushing down from the stuff in the shaft is about 3.14 * (12×12) * 10,000 * .44 (water) is 1,989,000 pounds…. (12 is average radius….)…. if you make it 16″ then it is about 3.5 million pounds….
Still seems to be a net upward pressure, but my numbers are ballpark – it’s at least in the realm of possibility….
The reason for the blowout was the gas was expanding (probably coming out of solution with the oil as pressure was reduced in the well shaft)…. with the riser intact, that 4 million pounds of pressure from the water was not present in the riser pipe
