Archive for February 24th, 2009

Fidelity Investments reports huge loss

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Story here and Here

Like WTF?  

Fidelity – the mutual fund folks in Boston spent the 4th quarter of 2008 buying up CitiGroup stock!   Perhaps it was them trying to “double down” or just being insanely stupid or trying to help out a “friend”. 

A lot of people have money at Fidelity (I have a 401(k) there)…  time to read up on what happens if a mutual fund family fails….  In theory, each mutual fund is firewalled off from the main company – but then again, in theory Bernie Madoff was buying the stocks for his clients.

*** Update ***

Friday, panic selling of CitiGroup caused a record one day trading volume in a single stock – 1.87 billion shares.   The prior record holder was Worldcom on July 1st,  2002 – after it was charged with improper account by the SEC and three weeks before it filed for bankruptcy.

February 24 2009 – Big Speech Day

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Asia and Europe are mirroring the large loss in the US stock market today.  This could be the day CitiGroup gets “bailed” out again.

President Obama speaks to the nation tonight about the economy.  Fasten your seat belts.  The first plunge on the roller coaster is always the scariest.

Ethanol from grain – bad idea getting worse

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

The nation is filling up with “ethanol from grain” refineries that are filing bankrupcty.

Renew Energy
Central Illinois Energy
Verasun
E3 Biofuels

Under the most optimistic assumptions, including using irrigation to grow grain, ethanonal returns only slightly more energy than the energy that was needed to make it (fertilizer, running tractors in the spring, harvesters in the fall, trucking the grain to the refinery.  Conventional gasoline/oil pipelines cannot transport ethanol, so it must either be trucked half way across the country, or shipped via rail (and few of the specialized rail cars exist).

Intensive production of corn is itself releasing more CO2 as more land is cleared to grow crops, farm runoff is expanding the “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico, non-renewable topsoil is being consumed and washed away, and the country’s nonrenewable underground aquifers are being depleted for irrigation.  Irrigating for 20-40 years always leads to salinity of the soil high enough that no crops will grow on the land.   This was a really bad idea, funded by ADM and with no science behind it. 

Ethanol from sugar cane or biomass may have some role in the future, as they offer substantially higher net returns on energy inputs .

If you’re still unconvinced with ethanol from grain is a bad idea, did you know that ethanol plants are large generators of Co2?

AIG “investment” going sour

Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

Story here

Remember when the US Government stepped in to “Save” AIG?  (even though AIG is an insurance company and not a bank).  At the time, various people in the government suggested that in the long run, the taxpayers would make a profit.

Now AIG says it is going to convert the Preferred shares we (the taxpayers) bought into common shares.  They can’t afford to pay the 10% interest that the preferred stock requires.  That was the whole point – that this would make the “investment” temporary and force AIG to quickly pay off the US Treasury by buying back the preferred stock.

That’s not what AIG is proposing.  Like CitiGroup, they want to take the US Treasury from the front of the line to get paid, and put them at the end of the line – so if/when AIG declares bankruptcy the US Treasury is holding only worthless common stock.

The bizarre part of this notion is that AIG thinks converting preferred stock to common stock is -their- decision.  That’s not how preferred stock works.  The owner of the stock decides when or if they wish to exercise their conversion option, usually based on the common stock getting above the conversion price by enough to justify letting go of the guaranteed interest income stream.

They’re talking like they have a friend inside the US Treasury (Geithner comes to mind) who is agreeable to this.  It’s time to say “NO” to AIG.

What is going on here is that most people do no realize their life insurance policies and annuities have no government “insurance” protection. 

Insurance company policies are typically guaranteed by a state run Guaranty Fund.  The fund has no assets of its own – the only tool it has to stand behind insurance policies is to impose an assessment on the other insurance companies that haven’t failed (making them more likely to fail, also).   Unfunded Insurance Guaranty funds are completely unprepared to deal with the largest insurance company in the world failing.  

When people realize their insurance policies and annuities are at risk, a “run” can begin on insurance companies as people withdraw the “cash value” of their whole life policies or demand an early termination of their annuity. 

This has happened before – in 1933, regulators declared an “insurance holiday” to stop runs on the insurance companies.  Here is the story in Time Magazine from April 1933.