Blog Archives

Bankruptcy Watch – Fairpoint

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Fairpoint, the telephone company that took over much of the phone system in New England from Verizon, is in financial trouble, according to the Nashua NH Newspaper.

Fairpoint is asking for their bondholders to delay repayment, and indicating that one of the possible alternatives could be bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy Watch – Lear

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Lear makes seating systems for automobiles.   When I was working for Buick, Lear had a very advanced “just in time” system that delivered the seats in sequence to match the cars, and robots did the unloading of the seats.  Lear has announced they will be filing chapter 11 next week.

Sears Willis Tower to “Go Green”

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

Story Here

Chicago’s Sears Tower claims it will reduce its consumption of electricity by 80%, and have the goal of becoming net-zero user of the power grid.  The London based Willis Insurance company will rename the Sears Tower to be Willis Tower next month.

How will technology save all this energy?   Well, they’re going to replace all of the windows in the building.  Okay, that’s useful.  I hope the new windows aren’t heavier than the ones they are replacing.   More efficient elevators and lighting control systems.     A few hundred square feet of solar panels to heat water for the 104 story building    They might try putting some wind turbines on the roof, but aren’t sure if that will work.

The description of the building says it is has a 150 Mwh power distribution system.   That’s 150,000 kw of power.   That’s a lot of power to get from 4 wind turbines.    How much energy is that?   Another stimulus funded green energy project on the south side of Chicago covering 46 acres in the former Pullman industrial site is “hoped” to generate a maximum of 10 Mwh of power.   Of course, that would only be when the sun is shining and there are no clouds.  

The building will somehow be powered by green energy… (like buying green energy offset credits from T Boon Pickens in Texas perhaps?)

Another part of the plan is to build a new hotel next door – Chicago currently has a glut of unused hotel rooms, but that could change when President Obama moves the U.S. Capital to Chicago.

A few other things to ask…  

  • Is the 80% figure for only the building or does it include the energy used by the tenants in the building?
  • How is the building heated?   Will the other changes change the heating and air conditioning load?  [answers]

The insanity continues.

Solution: Save Capitalism by taxing it 80%

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

Who would to so incredibly stupid to propose an 80% tax rate on capital gains?

Bloomberg Story

Louis Gerstner – the former CEO of I.B.M.  You know them as the company that is currently promoting taxing people “congestion pricing” for driving their cars into the city (like in Stockholm, Sweden) , and pitching the Obama government to let IBM be the builder of the “intelligent” “Smart Grid” which will let central environmental managers do things like turn off your air conditioning to “save the planet”.

Before working at IBM, he was the chairman of the Carlyle Group, the world’s second largest Private Equity Firm.   If you’re a global conspiracy person, the Carlyle Group is already on your list – even Michael Moore’s.   He also has worked for TARP recipient American Express, and Tobacco product seller RJR Nabisco.

Note that the co-author of this story is PBS’s Judy Woodruff, wife of former Wall Street Journal Editor Al Hunt – who is now executive Washington Editor for the Bloombama news Service.   Isn’t it sort of a conflict of interest to be the editor in charge of reviewing your wife’s reporting?   Where is the opposing point of view in this story that this might be a really stupid idea?

Trouble in Oil Land

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

Bloomberg Story

Why would a rich man in Saudi Arabia need to borrow $6 Billion from banks in Europe and the United States?   The answer is that Saudi Arabia has been going broke, and on the edge of financial collapse for some time.  CitiGroup is on the hook for $500 million just to this one company.

Saudi Arabia has virtually no resources other than oil.   They know the oil can’t last forever, so they’ve been engaged in very expensive long term projects like farms to grow their own food with hydroponics, desalinization plants to make fresh water from the ocean, building a rail line to get Islamic visitors to the holy sites, etc… 

Most of the actual work of all of the above is being done by foreigners, mostly from Pakistan and other Islamic countries.   The draconian repression of women and other religions, and a legal system that punishes people by stoning them to death and cutting their heads off is not helpful in trying to develop a modern society.   Those Saudi people with a good university education got it from being sent to universities in other countries.   It’s very hard to be a teacher in a country where the only book that matters is the Holy Book.

Other than pumping out oil, the only other economic activity going on in Saudi Arabia is pumping out babies.  Since 1980, the population has grown from 9 million to more than 25 million.  Close to 40% of the population is under 15 years old.  Only 2% are 65+ years old.   (In the United States, those numbers are 20.1% and 12.7%)

Jobs that involve manual labor or maintaining households are considered beneath the dignity of a Saudi, and are done by about 6 million non-Saudis (mostly single males).   Young Saudi men are largely unemployed and living on the money from government handouts, which gives them lots of time to think about blowing up skyscrapers in New York and hating Jews.

The large population growth and the lack of any other economic activity means the GDP per person is only about $17k.   (U.S. GDP/Person is $46k) 

The world’s banks have been more than willing to advance Saudi Arabia loan money against future oil revenues, so Saudi Arabia has huge debts.   Since 2003, their external debt has risen from $25 billion to $58 billion.  I’ve heard the figure thrown around that below $60 barrel, Saudi Arabia gets into serious problems.  If oil stayed below $40/barrel for a long time, the entire oil business falls apart.  Oil is currently about $68/barrel.

Bankruptcy Watch – Eastwind Maritime

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

Reuters

Eastwind Maritime is a significant shipping company based in New York.  They own a fleet of a variety of cargo ships.  They have filed for Chapter 7, which is immediate liquidation, not reorganization.  

Meanwhile, Bloombama News Service says things are looking up since things are not falling as fast as they could be.

Bankruptcy Watch – Tahiti Village

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

Another major advertiser on radio is preparing to file bankruptcy – the company that owned Tahiti Village, that “resort community” in Vegas giving away “free vacations” that was really selling people Time Shares…   In fact, some of my earliest “polls” were about this company’s misleading ads.  I wonder how Roseanne Barr feels today about her role. 

http://www.lvrj.com/business/48997596.html

Bankruptcy Watch – Red Roof Inns

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

Bloomberg Story

Red Roof Inns has defaulted on $367 million in mortgage debt.   They aren’t yet filing for bankruptcy, but that’s pretty likely.   CitiGroup led the buyout of the company in 2007.

Bankruptcy Watch – Debt Relief USA

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

The company who counsels people on how to “get out of debt” has filed chapter 11.   One news account mentions that the company is currently under investigation by the Attorney General.  Expect that Dave Ramsey will have a LOT to say about this today.   Debt Relief USA had advertised extensively on talk radio.

http://consumer.georgia.gov/00/press/detail/0,2668,5426814_94800056_135944239,00.html

Metro Rail Crash kills 9

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

Rather than tack more onto the post about the Air France crash, the Washington Post is now reporting what I speculated on almost verbatim:

What I had typed:

*** Washington D.C. update ***
6 killed today as one Metro train plows into another that is stopped in a station.   Media reports are blaming a failure of the signaling system, rather than the operator not noticing the impending crash and going into emergency stop.

Just a guess, but the most likely cause of this type of accident is when an engineer overshoots a station, then backs up the train on manual.   That puts the lead train into a “block” that is supposed to be empty.  The following train doesn’t know that because they already went past the green “all clear” signal.   The witness reports all agree that the moving train did not apply brakes at all prior to the crash.   I’ve ridden the Metro, and its cab control is very thorough – the only thing the operator does is to close the doors.  The train controls the acceleration and braking.   It’s very plausible that the operator could have been playing video games on her cell phone and letting the train make all the decisions.

A detail as you look at the pictures and read the accounts – you’ll see 4 tracks, with the Metro train on the inner track.   The outside tracks are NOT metro – they are the Amtrak line that runs into Union Station.   That probably greatly complicated the crash scene and the risk that an Amtrak train could have plowed into the wreckage – fortunately that didn’t happen.

——————————————————————————–

What the Washington Post reported:

“The trains in yesterday’s crash were supposed to be in automatic operation, which means the operators would have been relying on the computerized system to run the trains. The only function required of a train operator during automatic operation is to close the doors after a station stop. Some safety experts said operators can “zone out” during computerized operation because they don’t have to pay as close attention as when they manually run trains.”

———————————————————————————-

Already the cries are coming out for more funding for more technology to fix this system that had two fail safe systems to stop the trains – three if you count the human.

It gets worse… and further supports my theory.   There was a bizarre crash on the same Red Line in 2004 involving the same 1000 series (original 1974) cars, with the “anti-climbing” protection failing to work.  The NTSB Report can be read here.   

The determination was that in this case, the lead train was put into manual mode (it was an empty train).    The following train was in the station  unloading passengers.   The first train rolled backwards for close to half a mile down a hill until it hit the stopped train going 36 mph.  The driver had not had much sleep and probably didn’t notice the train was rolling backwards in the dark tunnel.

The operator of the empty train noticed the train starting to roll backwards.  He tried to stop the rolling by applying power (like riding the clutch on a car on a hill).   But on the older trains that doesn’t stop the train – in fact it can make it roll back faster.   The correct action is to *apply the brakes*, and the train will stop.   When the train didn’t stop, he didn’t know what to do.   The management didn’t know that in manual mode on the old trains the software wouldn’t stop a rollback, so there was no training for this situation.

That’s not what happened yesterday – the area of the crash was a downgrade – there is a curve to the right, with a fence separating the Metro from the Amtrak trains, which does somewhat limit the visibility around the gentle curve, but the top of the train is visible above the fence. 

Another interesting detail from the 2004 crash.  Non-revenue trains HAVE to be run in manual mode, since they are not in the schedule and you don’t want them automatically stopping in the stations and opening the doors –  and have people getting on the train that is just going to the storage yard.

One account says the lead train today had been stopped for 2 or 3 minutes because of “electrical problems”.  I will almost guarantee you that the first train was in manual mode trying to override the safety systems – and the train being in manual mode made it “invisible” to the train the crashed into it.   Before a train is put into manual mode, the “central control” operations center must notify other trains on the line to come to an immediate stop or operate manually at reduced speeds, or you can get exactly this type of outcome.

One curious report (hard to know if it was accurate) was from a passenger on the moving train… said there was a thump…. and she texted a message on her phone, and then the big crash happened.   That would tend to suggest that the following train’s safety system put the train in emergency stop, and then either the operator overrode on manual and/or the train was drifting downhill.     The 1000 series cars do not have data recorders on them, and the operator is dead, so it may take a bit to find out what happened.

** added **

A few more random thoughts – the fence and the right hand curve make it more difficult to see if the stopped train was in the south or north bound tracks.   Maybe she assumed the train was northbound.

The center position of the speed control is freewheeling – the train neither applies power nor applies the brakes.   Since that area has a significant grade heading down, perhaps the train protection system isn’t designed to apply brakes if there is no power being applied – and just like the 2004 accident, the train rolled due to gravity and an inattentive operator….

6/24/09

NTSB’s preliminary analysis says that – at the point of the collision – the moving train was on automatic, train protection was turned on, the emergency stop was depressed, and there is evidence on the wheels and tracks of an emergency stop.

The 2004 accident report contains extensive data of when each train passed each sensor and at what speed, so the NTSB claim that there will be no data about the moving train (because it doesn’t have on-board data recorders) is in error.   They also stated that the NTSB rejected the response that the Metro would not retrofit the 1000 series cars is factually wrong – the document (above) published by the NTSB clearly says “answer accepted” on both items.   Let the politically motivated lying and finger pointing  begin.

6/25/09

Tests yesterday revealed that one section of track failed to detect the presence of a shunt (the shunt creates a bridge between the two rails just as the axle of a rail car does – which is one way the system knows a train is present.   An earlier news account stated that this section of track had maintenance performed on it recently.   That explains part of the cause, but not all of it.   Each train sends out a signal identifying itself – its location and speed that travels on the rails. – that’s how the train protection system knows what to do.  Either the lead train was not broadcasting, or there was an electrical break between the blocks.   Trains going through a block without being seen should have created “faults” in the monitoring system.  Probably they’re going to find the people who worked on the track disconnected the wiring for the safety system and didn’t reconnect it.

*light bulb moment*

The track on the outside of the Metro tracks is not only for Amtrak, it is also Metro Rail, the commuter rail service.   If a Metro rail train was going around that curve on the outside track as the subway train was approaching, it could have obscured the moving train’s ability to see the stopped train.   Given it was rush hour, that seems very possible.  Time to check the train schedules for MetroRail…

Well, that idea doesn’t check out…   Maryland Transit  doesn’t run any contra-flow trains.   The run all of their cars into Union Station in the morning (and have to send 2 trains to Baltimore due to lack of track space in Union Station), and then send all the trains out in the evening.  But that track is also an active CSX freight line…  (Maryland Transit’s site mentions commuter trains are basically at the mercy of CSX’s freight movements)…  so it’s even more likely that a CSX train going inbound could have blocked her view.

WTOP is Reporting that Metro mangement has ordered the 1000 series cars to be used only in the middle of trains (trains are made up of groups of 2 cars – 2,4,6 or 8 cars).   By putting them in the middle, the newer trains are controlling the train set, and the 1000 series cars are not exposed to climbing in a collision.   They are also rechecking all 3,000 track circuits in the entire system for faults.

——–

 Are you sure you want the government running your health care system?