Republican voters could not be more clear. About 80% of those with an opinion support either Donald Trump or TEA Party favorite Ted Cruz. They have a clear mandate for drastic change.
If nothing changes and Trump doesn’t withdraw (voluntarily or otherwise), imagine what the Convention in Cleveland will look like. Will Karl Rove, Glenn Beck, Fox News and National Review embrace the man they despise? – and smile while the red white and blue balloons are dropping? It seems unlikely. Ted Cruz is not going to form an independent “Conservative” party led by the people in the GOP who hate his guts… Trump may end up being the leader of a party with nobody left. What happens to Congress?
Hillary is smiling. Checkmate in 4 moves.
I can see why Karl Rove despises Trump because he’s not Republican establishment. I can understand why Blenn Beck and National Review hate him because about 0% conservative. Fox News, however, seems to be in the tank for Trump based on the coverage I’ve seen. Very disappointed.
I disagree…Fox News seems strongly in the tank for Rubio. Other than “The Five” and Brett Baier, most of the shows seem almost anti-Trump. While not a Trump supporter, because of the Gang of Eight I am anti-Rubio. It will be interesting to see how the voters he lied to in Florida vote on March 15th.
Florida is important because it is “winner take all”. Trump has to win on the first ballot at the convention or he loses. The Republican establishment picks the delegates to the convention, not the winning candidate. That’s just wrong. Democrats allow the winning candidate to choose who goes to the convention.
Even if Trump wins on the first ballot (Winner take all will push him over), the convention hall will be filled with virulent anti-trump delegates who are only obligated to vote for Trump on the first ballot. If trump withdraws after he has won, his replacement will be chosen by the “establishment”, not people chosen by Trump.
I, personally haven’t seen much anti-Trump rhetoric on Fox News, but I do agree they seem to like Rubio since he started winning. They never seemed to get behind Cruz.
Nor the man that called Cruz his friend during the early part of the campaign, Senator Rand Paul. In fact, the divided the race into establishment lanes and anti-establishment lanes and everyone was in one of those two except Senator Rand Paul who was excluded from both.
Does anyone have any thoughts on whether or not GOP Rule 40, adopted in 2012, will affect the convention?
http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/251466317/Rules-of-the-Republican-Party-3-0-FINAL
aka the “Karma Rule”. It was pushed by the Romney camp to keep Rep Ron Paul from being nominated and able to speak at the 2012 convention. Now it may lock in the man Mitt hates, Mr. Donald Trump. lol
Being old enough and nerdy enough to have watched TV when conventions mattered…
The most important thing to know about the convention is it is run by the RNC and the hall will be filled by party loyalists, not Donald Trump supporters. They are obligated to vote for the winner on the first ballot only.
If the convention was held today using the latest polls as if they were the actual vote, the convention could declare Donald Trump the winner by acclimation (without a vote). Trump will win the necessary 8 states that are “winner take all”. No proportional state has a leader with 50% percent. While Cruz leads in California and Texas, he is nowhere near 50%. Trump is the only candidate who is eligible to be nominated.
That being said, rules are there to be changed. The first day of the convention is when the rules are finalized and a vote to adopt the rules. While they are obligated to vote for Trump, they can change the rules. They could add a rule that people whose last name begins with T can’t be nominated.
Rule 40 exists mainly to limit TV time to real candidates. Rand Paul and Carson will not be addressing the convention. Delegates can vote for candidates that were not officially nominated.
Extrapolating the polls by assigning the undecideds in the same proportions as the decided (assuming neither Trump, Cruz or Rubio withdraw), Trump would have around 1,500 delegates, more than the required 1,237. If the RNC used manipulating the convention rules to nominate Rubio who has 200 delegates, how would America react?
Who is the RNC and how are the members chosen?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Committee
Each state gets 3 members – North Dakota and California have equal power . The state chairman, and one man and one woman are selected by each state party at their state conventions. Each state makes up its own rules, but this is the “grass roots” part of the party. Counties and congressional districts roll up into the state party. Cruz and the TEA party probably control a lot of this part of the party – it means getting people to go to meetings. Trump hasn’t got that kind of organization.
Here is some useful wrong information.
http://www.redstate.com/diary/Morton_C_Blackwell/2016/01/11/urgent-amendments-national-rules-republican-party/
The purpose of the rule 40 is only to limit access to TV time to fringe candidates. It has nothing to do with who delegates can vote for. If Rubio doesn’t win the majority of delegates in 8 states (extremely probable), the delegates not only can still vote for Rubio, but are obligated to.
Even if you take the extreme position that delegates cannot vote for someone who was not nominated, the convention can vote to suspend rule 40. Vote would be a voice vote and the RNC will “hear” the result it wants. The problem is if they let Rubio have face time, then Kasich and Carson will demand it, too
Rule 32 (see link above) allows suspension of the rules if the majority of 8 state delegations wish to suspend rule 40. Since the delegates are only bound to Trump on the roll call vote, they are still free to vote to suspend the rules to let Rubio be nominated.
Even if the motion to suspend the rules fails, rule 40(b) permits a motion to name the one candidate (Trump) who qualifies be acclaimed the winner without a roll call vote. Such a motion is not required by the rule, and would surely be voted down. If Trump has the delegates, he wins.
F*** the RNC. Sorry, but I have had it up to my eyeballs with Democrat lite and all of the finagling for power and glory. These morons want to be at the head of the line to keep confiscating and spending our tax dollars. Rules be damned – let Cruz and Trump go independent. I grew up in the 60’s not liking the establishment and not a heck of a lot has happened to change my views.
CNN put out a national poll today that is interesting. The “lead story” is trump is at 49% from registered Republicans and Republican leaning independents. Rubio is 16%, Cruz 15%. Rush would quickly point out (and probably did) this was registered voters, not likely voters.
The more important part was if Trump wins, 35% of Republicans will definitely not support him in November. Similarly, 20% of Democrats will oppose Hillary.
Cruz lost significant ground in Texas in the last week according to two other polls. Texas is not winner take all, so even if Cruz hangs on, they’ll get about the same number of delegates. March 15th is when Winner Takes All kicks in and Trump is leading in every one of those winner take all states. That is why he will win unless the RNC figures out a way to invalidate that rule. State Party conventions occur after the last primary but before the national convention. If the states break their own rules, Trump will quit.
More process details – the rules for the convention will be hashed out by a rules committee the week prior to the convention. The starting point will be the rules created by Romney. Trump may lack the clout to fend off rules changes to scuttle hm, which would be the motivation for him to quit.
The most important imperative to the RNC is to not have chaos on live TV. That may be a tall order.
LOL, ruby finally one a caucus , the state of Al Franken, Keith Ellison and Amy Klobuchar . LOL
Dipsticks.
The establishment is beyond ridiculous and I have one question for the key demographics that went for Hillery se Tung: ( you know who you all are)
Have you lost your mind? Is there any brain activity at all ? Do you go inside when it starts to rain ?
Voting for Hillery is just beyond LOL , double LOL !!
Yeah establishment, you have got to Limbaugh just like you did beck, ( scared the crap out of beck) and now Limbaugh is afraid to support Trump. He liked Trump at first but now he doesn’t. Political hacks.
Keep on and you will have the clintons back in the white house. People are tired of NAFTA, tired of the establishment, tired of the republicans because they have gone ‘bat guano’ . They are just like the democrats , but with a different set of cronies.
Turn out the lights the party is over, ala Don Meredith.
Trump wasn’t my first choice, but I know I will not vote for establishment. Hell no.
I will happily vote for Trump, to keep the clintons out of the white house again!
Parrott
Minnesota is a state that allows crossover voting. The Democratic vote was very different than the polling. Hillary voters were voting for Rubio. The Democratic race is over.