Archive for August 14th, 2009

Lithium Ion Battery Duty Cycles

Friday, August 14th, 2009

Barack Obama, the Science President, is staking the future of America, and especially that of our government car company GM, on the Volt electric car, which uses lithium ion batteries, that can be recharged by a small electric motor if the battery gets low.

A commenter on a news story pointed out that the lithium battery pack will have a life of only 1,000 duty cycles before it must be replaced, which the person believes will cost about $15,000.    If you use your Volt to go to work and back every day and nothing else (2 cycles/day x 5 days/week X 50 weeks),  at the end of 2 years, your batteries will be useless.   They will start to lose range long before they die completely, which means the 40 mpg gasoline engine kicks in, defeating the entire purpose of the electric car.

But 1000 is probably way too optimistic.  

http://batteryuniversity.com/parttwo-34.htm

But lets say that is accurate.   Instead of your 40 mile commute costing $1 in electricity, the cost of using up the batteries adds another $15.00, or in the ballpark of comparison to gasoline an additional $10 per gallon.

GM claims to have “magic” proprietary computer software that will allow the batteries to last 10 years:

http://gm-volt.com/2009/01/23/gm-qa-with-bob-kruse-on-the-chevy-volts-batteries/

(How did they determine that in less than 10 years?)

President Obama makes a big deal that he’s the “Smart” president.  Answer that one, smart guy.

If you get past that issue, Lithium ion batteries are dependent on lithium that is only commercially viable in one mine in the world, lose their ability to deliver current if they get too hot, and are a significant fire and explosion hazard.    There is also currently no technology to recycle lithium ion batteries.

Hurry up and Stop

Friday, August 14th, 2009

Joey Reynolds and his guests were talking about the state of the economy, and while they didn’t necessarily come up with any brilliant solutions, they did do a pretty good job of framing the problem.

President Obama and Tim Geithner are pursuing that the only way to avoid disaster is to take the debt making machinery and push the pedal to floor.  If we just give away enough free stuff, the economy will turn around, real estate and the stock market will bounce back and the increase in economic activity will ultimately take care of the debt.

But the American people (and Joey’s guests) are slamming on the brakes.  We view debt as the problem, not the solution.  All of the rapid change and uncertainty is paralyzing decision making and forcing lots of money into short term investments to tread water – not just individuals but businesses and developers.    But the problem is that if people become frugal and cut spending to the bone, reduce personal debt and save money, the economy slows, unemployment goes up, and the government deficit explodes.  The country is addicted to debt and overconsumption.   Stopping that cycle suddenly could be catastrophic.

Until and unless people think the future is predictable, many people will stay in full defensive made, protecting their future survival.   President Obama needs to slam the brakes on the change machine if there is any chance for the economy to begin to adjust and heal.   The best thing he could do is take a long vacation and stop holding daily media events and give up the “we must do something fast or else” rhetoric.