Blog Archives

Eating your seed corn

Friday, July 24th, 2009

One perpetual problem faced by “do gooder” relief agencies happens when they try to help desperately poor countries deal with famine. The long term solution is to teach farmers how to grow crops, and deal with finding water, controlling pests, fertilizing and the like.

The problem is that when they give the farmers the seed corn in the spring, and return back in the fall to see how things went, they find a starving village and an empty field. The farmer will tell the aid workers they decided to eat the corn rather than plant it. [so seed corn is now treated with chemicals to make it inedible]

President Obama – and his predecessors Joseph Stalin and Mao – also did not understand this lesson and made the same mistake. If you encourage the farmer, help him nurture the crop and allow him to keep the bounty of his crop, the one seed returns 100x what was planted. If you steal the farmer’s crop in the fall to spread the wealth around to people who sat on their donkey all summer, next year he’ll eat the seed corn, and then demand you feed him and take care of him. When there is no crop left to harvest, millions of people die from starvation.

Unless of course that was the plan all along.

How’s that war on terror?

Friday, July 24th, 2009

NY Daily News Story

So this 20-something guy from Long Island, converts to Islam and based on “mistreatment” of other followers of Islam, goes to Pakistan, hooks up with Al Queda, helps them lob missiles into a U.S. Military base in Afghanistan, and provides information to his friends about how they could attack Penn Station in New York.

Damn that George Bush and his warrantless wiretaps for catching this guy.

Has anyone else heard the story or have any details on Barack Obama visiting Pakistan for 3 weeks in 1981 with his muslim college roommates, who were active in his campaign as campaign bundlers?” Has the FEC done any investigation at all into the large number of “under the limit” donations that may have come from non-US donors?

Geithner’s new helper

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

Six months after President Obama was sworn in, Tim Geithner is finally getting around to officially appointing his helpers (subject to Senate approval).  

The Wall Street Journal reported today that Jeffrey Goldstein will be nominated to be undersecretary for domestic (as opposed to international) finance.

So who is Mr. Goldstein and what does it say about future policy?   He currently works for a private equity firm, but before that, he worked at the World Bank as CFO.

The World Bank isn’t a “bank” at all. It makes “loans” to third world countries that it knows have no chance of ever paying the money back, kind of like a global Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

Some of its current areas of interest are: Gender Equality, ending Poverty in Africa, Ending Poverty in South Area, Global Climate Change. They work on the conflicts mostly by flying around the world holding conferences, forming study groups and passing resolutions.

Where does the World Bank get the funding to carrying on this critically important projects? Well, one source is the U.S. Agency for International Development, which is part of Hillary Clinton’s US State Department. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are sister organizations created as a result of the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 to deal with global finance and reconstruction of post-war Europe as World War Two was winding down.

Sounds like he’ll fit right in.

GM may still go under

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

GM was rushed through bankruptcy, but there is another part of their problems that wasn’t solved, and could still drag them down, or possibly require us to throw more good money after bad.

Back in the 1990s, GM split out its part making operations into a separate company called Delphi (kind of a nicer name than AC Delco). Delphi has been languishing in bankruptcy for upward of 5 years, with many of the core component businesses being sold off to competitors, but Delphi still makes many of the critical parts and components for GM – the kind of stuff where you have to be directly involved in the engineering of the car long before it even hits the prototype stage.

Delphi’s bondholders voted and refused the latest reorganization plan. More than likely their game plan is… GM is now owned by Tim Geithner and he can’t let Delphi fail and take GM with it, so either GM will have to buy us back (with what money?) or Geithner will have to show up with a bucket full of money to bail us out, too.

Hence the principle that Geithner still doesn’t understand:
“When you reward failure, you get more of it”… if people believe you will “rescue” them, they not only will avoid solving their own problems, but start engaging in more and more reckless behavior knowing that Mommy & Daddy will be there to “backstop” them.

The suggestion has been made to use the same “We gotta do it yesterday” fast track bankruptcy procedure on Delphi – but since their bankruptcy is five years old, it seems hard to make a case that this is now an emergency. I don’t know if there is a precedent for declaring an emergency because “if this company fails, it would cause another company to fail”.  Then again, following the law doesn’t seem to be in fashion for the past few months.

The news today is that the Feds have taken over responsibility for the Delphi employees pensions. The federal agency that handles this sets caps on overly generous pensions, especially for those who retired way before 65…. so it will hit early retirees hard (or high income retirees), in order to keep the pension fund solvent and pay a reasonable pension for the rest (and not totally turn it into a government bailout).  If you make the pension guaranty corporation’s terms too good, then companies will just stop funding their pension plans, knowing the Tim Geithner will jump in and rescue the people on pensions 5 years from now.

Watch Muni operations in real time

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

When San Francisco’s muni system was having its computer troubles, they decided to put a real time display of what the system operator sees on the terminal – onto the internet, so irate passengers could appreciate what was going on. If you’re a streetcar/computer geek like me, this is very interesting to watch for hours on end – if you’re not, you’ll probably find it really boring.

Muni Real Time Display

The display is a bit spartan, since the system operator knows what it means. Here is a typical display with a little annotation and explanation:

Real Time Muni Display image

West is to the left, north is to the top, although the tunnel is not actually straight nor perfectly east/west. This is a typical railroad dispatcher control display – it is showing the relative position of important things it is controlling. Actual distances also are compressed and not proportional.

Here is an overall system map to help figure things out:

The Market Stree subway runs from the Embarcadero station to the East Portal of the Twin Peaks Tunnel. Twin Peaks Tunnel was built in 1918 – the subway was started in the 1960s, The two red lines near the CAL/CAR are interconnections with the surface line on Market Street. Prior to the opening of the subway, that is how streetcars temporary got into the Twin Peaks tunnel while the subway was being built. They are now used only in an emergency or infrequent transfers of equipment.

Each train in the subway shows up on the blue lines as a number, which indicates the number of cars in the train. .

Above/below the lines are the station designators, with the L/R at the end indicated Left vs Right. The Blue rectangles are the platforms. The 5 eastern ones are center loading platforms, and the outer 4 have separate platforms on each side of the tracks.

Up above/below the station designators is the route designation of each train… J, K, L, M, N,T. If the letter is in black, the train is operating under computer control. If it turns Yellow or white, the train is on manual operations.

It is normal practice in the subway to join together cars from trains going to different destinations to get more trains through the subway. When the trains reach West Portal, the combined trains are decoupled and go their own ways. If you ride Muni, you want to be sure you get on the correct car :)

In this example, there are 2 trains both at platform POL, but they are not coupled. That’s why the L is waaay up high on the display. If they were coupled together, the display would show ML.

The yellow dots indicate the path that the train is going to take.
Now for some other situations:

When the train icon turns red, that means the brakes are being applied (WEL/WER). When the number changes to a dot, that means the doors are open in the station (EMR).

The N and J trains don’t go through the Twin Peaks Tunnel. The 2 car N train just east of CHL is coming in off the street, and about to join the mainline. The N train East of the Embarcadero has gone beyond the turnaround tracks and is headed out of the tunnel to begin street running. The T line also goes beyond the tunnel, runing down the East side of downtown to serve the AT&T Baseball stadium and connect with Caltrans station, which provides commuter rail service to the Southern suburbs, and then continues in the new 3rd Street Cooridor to connect to another CalTrans station that has never been built because Muni and Caltrans don’t talk to each other, and CalTrans wanted money to double track their lines into the station at 4th and King. [Do you really want the government running your health insurance?]

If the Giants are in town, look for a lot of extra N/T(K) trains. “T” trains show up as “K” because the control system software has not been updated yet.

The train circled in red is a 2 car train – JX… The X indicates that the train is going out of service (I think – it’s now 8:30 PM and rush hour is long ago over)

This image captures a few more interesting things:

The station platform at EMR has turned yellow. There are two trains at the station – a 1 car M train going into the Y to switch directions, and a 2 car NN train that is going straight and about to leave the tunnel heading east (then south). The Yellow indicates that the Dispatcher is holding the train at the station even though the train could proceed.

A common problem in all transit is “bunching”. If a train (or bus) gets too close to the one in front of it, fewer passengers will have shown up at the stops. If the train/bus picks up nobody it spends less time stopped, and will get even closer to the one in front of it, and you can wind up with one train/bus filled to capacity followed by 3 completely empty trains/bus.

An experienced driver knows his/her job is to stay on schedule, not to “go as fast as I can”, even if the passengers yell at you to go faster. Knowing that issue, you can often save yourself a lot of grief during rush hour, by letting the first train/bus go by if it is completely packed. More than likely, another one that is almost completely empty is right behind it with lots of empty seats. It pays to know human nature :)

Over of the right side, a 2 car NN train has just entered the system. It’s train indicator is yellow indicating that the train is also being “held”. There is a 1 car “L” train in front if it on “Manual”.

A more detailed description can be found here.

Here we go again – 47 injured in Muni Crash

Sunday, July 19th, 2009

The Muni system in San Francisco was the scene of a collision at 2:30 PM Calfornia time, with 47 people injured, 20 of them seriously
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/07/18/MN3C18RJGG.DTL

Some background – because of its geography and dense population, San Francisco was one of the last major cities to have a substantial streetcar system. They used the PCC type streetcars that were invented just before World War two, and deployed widely after the war was over. Most of the lines ran on the very wide Market Street and looped at the Montgomery Station. Prior to BART, the Oakland Bay Bridge had a streetcar line that ran across the bridge.  

When BART was being designed, the decision was made to take the streetcars off Market Street and bury them in a tunnel, and the BART line in the tunnel a level below the streetcars. The streetcars were replaced with more modern LRV cars. (Interestingly, the PCC cars were brought back to Market Street as the “F” line as a heritage line, and has been wildly successful).  Being a transit geek, I’ve travelled to San Francisco several times just to ride BART and the PCC cars.

Here is some home movies of what Market Street was like when it was filled with Streetcars, Trolley buses, Diesel Buses and cars.

With the large number of trains running during the weekday, and the small lead times, MUNI decided to install automatic train operation systems from the Canadian company Altacel to allow the computers to control the operations in the tunnel, allowing 48 to 60 trains per hour instead of the 23 when done by human operators. Once the cars emerge from the tunnel, they run on city streets among cars, so need human operations.

The first few weeks of the MUNI operation were a totally disaster, with cars refusing to move, frustrated operators trying to override the system, and passengers fuming. Eventually, the bugs were worked out and it has operated pretty flawlessly since then – until today.

The reports indicate that one moving train rear-ended a stopped train at high speed. The driver of the moving train is one of the most seriously injured. It’s worth noting that this happened on Saturday afternoon, when trains would be few and far between and operating with large headways. The accident occured at the West Portal of the tunnel under Twin Peaks That’s the point at which the Train Protection ends and street running begins. Muni System Map
The Twin Peaks Tunnel is 2.27 miles long… plenty of time for a driver to be distracted and not watching the space in from of them since there is nothing to do in the tunnel for maybe 3 minutes and in the tunnel the train is still under automated control, and on a Saturday it’s not like there might be train right in front of them.

A blogger in San Francisco caught the damaged train being hauled away Pictures Here

Video of the general area of the crash is on Myspace here. The accident happened outside the tunnel underneath the roofed in area.

There was a similar accident in June 2008, when a Muni train hit the train in front going 17 mph, in a 3 mph zone. Accident Account

In August 2008, a Muni driver rammed the historic streetcar on Market Street, an hour after being warned she was following the streetcar in front too closely. Story

Early reports (usually wrong) suggest the driver of the moving train gestured that he wasn’t able to stop the train, or fainted, or the train in front of him stopped unexpectedly

Maybe President Obama should propose a Smarter Public Transit System.

Delphi being rescued

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

If you’re old and/or have spent hours waiting for a car to be fixed in a GM Dealership, you probably know an automotive parts brand called AC Delco.   It was a subsidiary of GM.   They made/make a variety of parts for GM cars – air filters, spark plugs, transmissions, batteries, radios, braking systems.     In the mid 1990s, GM was starting to feel the pressure to start adequate funding of its pension fund and retiree promises of lifetime health care benefits.   

 One of the steps GM took to raise money was to sell off AC Delco – they started the process in 1995 and then sold the company in an IPO in 1999.  That also gave Delco more flexibility to deal with union issues away from the car assembly business and to move some parts manufacturing outside of the United States.

GM is still heavily dependent on Delphi for parts – if there is no Delphi, there is no GM.   Delphi has been in bankruptcy for  4 years.  So today is the last day for Delphi to come up with offers to bring the company out of bankruptcy.

Delphi seems to have found a solution today.

NY Times story

A personal aside – back in 1986, I was working for Buick City as a contractor doing computer work. At the time, GM was using brute force to tell their suppliers they would have to start placing AIG standard barcodes on pallets of parts being shipped, and enter shipping data into GM’s systems when parts were shipped, in order to implement “Just in Time” parts management at the assembly plant. The suppliers either had to comply, or would no longer be a supplier to GM. AC Delco was the one entity that seemed unable or unwilling to comply, requiring all of their part information to have to be entered by hand – and Delco used different part numbers for their parts than GM did. Buick City is now just an empty field in Flint Michigan, reverting back to nature.

Beware of being rescued

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

I can’t tell you the name of the movie, where or when I saw it, but it’s one of those ideas that sticks with you….

Attractive woman is walking down the street by herself in the middle of the day, and a young kid runs by and steals her purse….  kid runs down the street, where a handsome looking man (having seen what just happened) grabs the kid and the purse – the kid gets away, and the “Hero” goes over to the woman and gives her the purse back, and the shaken women immediately embraces her hero, and they quickly go off somewhere and have sex.

What she doesn’t know is that she was conned.  The child was actually working for the “hero”.   The entire thing was scripted and prearranged to terrorize the woman and have the woman run into the arms of the man and do whatever he wanted to her.   

I don’t remember the rest of the movie – whether she ends up being killed or sold into prostitution or some other fate – but I hope the point is clear.  When Tim Geithner shows up to “rescue” you, he’s not your friend.  I think people are beginning to catch on to that.

Keep CIT in your prayers.

Advice on leaving America

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Back before the 2004 election, Harper’s magazine did a serious article about just how difficult it would be to actually leave the United States and never come back if George W Bush won the election.  You are the property of the U.S. government after all.  It’s not like the farmer can let the cows leave the pasture and not be milked.

The article is located [here].   I don’t think in their wildest dreams they wrote this thinking that people might start rereading it in 2009.

“New GM” recalls workers – to build luxury SUVs

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

Well, not technically SUVs.   The new term is “Crossover” vehicles.   It’s a luxury vehicle with all the bells and whistles, but with a hatchback and room to carry lots of stuff.

The Detroit News reports that the factory in the Lansing Michigan area will recall 900 people to restart the second shift. If you haven’t heard of the Builck Enclave, here is their website. The price starts at $35,000. Standard features include:

  • 4975 pound curb weight
  • 4 Wheel Drive, 18″ wheels
  • Seating for 7
  • 288 horsepower V6 engine
  • Bose Stereo with XM Radio
  • Mileage – 16 City, 22 Highway
  • Remote keyless entry
  • Onstar

Optional features include:

  • Rear parking assist

You people just haven’t got the message yet!

On a slightly related note, the LA Times reports that US Government owned Bank of America has announced it will finances purchases of the Tesla Electric car, a $109,000+ sports car.