While the “Right Wing Propaganda Machine” (Fox News, John Bolton, some of John Batchelor’s guests) have been pounding the drums of war trying to incite America to attack Iran in a replay of the WMD rationale for attacking Iraq – the more likely conflict will be with Turkey and Israel – especially if you think the “Arab Spring” is being pushed by Turkey.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0910/1224303851405.html
Turkey broke off all military cooperation today with Israel. The entire Turkey military leadership resigned at the end of July (which I missed)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14401661
(this was related to a supposed coup attempt to try to exploit tensions with Greece to scare the civilian government)
In recent days, Turkey has made it clear they intend to force creation of a Sovereign Palestinian State in Gaza (a process underway in the UN), free from interference from Israel – like naval blockades. The showdown is coming. Last year’s “Peace Flotilla” was a dry run.
Turkey is a problem for Israel on a lot of levels.
They are a Democracy – so the “Israel is the only Democracy” thing doesn’t hold up. They’re a member of NATO. Turkey has a very large military with sophisticated US weapons and a large Air Force. Many of their weapon systems were delivered by Israel (consider the significance of Stuxnet to Turkey)
A brief summary of what Turkey has at its disposal:
- 420,000 active members of the Army, with several thousand battle tanks, mostly American made, about 300 helicopters, lots of short range missiles, sophisticated air defenses
- The Air Force has a large number of F16s that were made in Turkey… it has significant in-flight refueling capability as well as AWACS that are being delivered this year
- The Navy has 14 submarines, 17 frigates, 7 corvettes, 27 fast attack missile ships, mine layers/sweepers, 45 amphibious attack ships, 75 helicopters…
Perhaps more important is Turkey has its own ability to manufacture advanced weapons, so isn’t dependent on the US if sanctions were imposed. (I’m not sure that President Obama is opposed to what Turkey is doing – quite the contrary). Some of their weapons are also coming from China.
Turkey has 90 nuclear bombs (courtesy of the United States), but they require the “permission” of NATO to use.
What Turkey doesn’t have is an easy land route to reach Israel. Their new ally Egypt does. For Turkey to send heavy armor into Israel, it would have to go through Syria or Syria and Lebanon (which is essentially controlled by Syria)
The real purpose of the “Arab Spring” seems to be making itself clear – The Destruction of Israel, which at least part of the US Government is “on board” with. Turkey fighting Israel would be close to the military capabilities of the United States. Turkey is no Libya.
The main thing Turkey lacks is aircraft carriers – but air bases in Egypt would do in a pinch. Cyprus is about 250 miles from Jerusalem.
Israel’s response to this perceived threat from Turkey is to threaten to support Kurdish rebels (Turkey has 1,400 troops already in Iraq) and stirring up the Armenians with memories of the genocide so old nobody alive witnessed it, but it is part of the Armenian identity and useful to incite old hatreds. Problems in Armenia could shut down the oil pipeline from the Caspian sea (Kazakhstan, etc…) to the West.
The movie “On Wings of Eagles” has an important scene in it worth understanding to appreciate military tactics in this area. Wings of Eagles is the story about H Ross Perot got his employees out of Iran following the Revolution. The man rescuing the workers is driving them down a road when they encounter a single soldier blocking the road ordering them to stop. Being experienced with the ways of Iran, he orders the driver to immediately stop and surrender. They are taken to a local tribal leader and they assure him they hated the Shah (which wasn’t true) and they were given safe passage. The guy chasing them blows by the sentry and goes around the corner in the road and met by the much bigger force and gets a bullet in the head.
The Peace Flotilla was the trial balloon – to judge what Israel would do and how the world would react. Libya was the sentry that exposed just how weak NATO (other than Turkey) is. Norway is fully on board with attacking Israel, for whatever that is worth.
Gog, Magog, Tubal.
Cinderella, Snow White, The Easter Bunny, Santa Claus
The Illuminati, Knights Templar, Skull & Bones, CFR, Masons
Is Turkey headed down a similar path as Pakistan? I’m just not of a mind to travel anymore (age, business, TSA and other terrorists) I just can’t see trying the Mid-East these days.
With Greece falling apart, I have to think Cyprus gets back into conflict soon. Turkey supposedly has a strong intention to keep the government secular. The Turks are’t Arabs nor are they Persians. Turkey is in NATO, but not yet the E.U. Most people probably don’t consider Turkey to be in Europe.
I’m not clear why Turkey care about Arabs in “Palestine” having a homeland
Egypt has declared a state of emergency after a mob attacked the Israeli embassy in Cairo
If Turkey, Egypt, and the rest of the Arab bullies in the middle east attack Israel without legitimate provocation, most Americans are going to side with Israel. If Obama then backs Turkey (or stands aside and lets Turkey and NATO annihilate Israel using U.S. and NATO weaponry) it will be interesting to watch him be on the wrong side of yet another important issue with the American public. He’s batting .001 so far, his one hit being that he allowed the Navy seals to take out Bin Laden.
The real question everyone should be asking is why does NATO (i.e. the U.S.) still have 90 nuclear weapons based in Turkey after their military leadership resigned in July? Iran doesn’t yet have nukes and everyone is worried. Turkey has modern nukes with an unstable military and no one thinks we might have a problem there???
Turkey attacks Israel, cue the music: It’s the end of the world as we know it, Its the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine,
Maybe there will be a volunteer force of American evangelicals and Mormons that will go help Israel? Especially if President Zero drops the ball again. Sort of like the Americans that went and helped the Chinese Chang Kai sheik, (Flying Tigers) Its a core belief to support Israel for some Americans.
yeah Egypt, better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know. You have chaos in Egypt now. Nothing good can come from this.
No, the more American analogy is the Spanish Civil War. All the Communists can go help fight someone else’s war, take drugs and draw weird paitings and call it Art.