http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67817/shuja-nawaz/the-pakistan-dilemma
It doesn’t come to any real conclusions – the thing it touches on is the fragile relations between the US Government, the Pakistani military and ISI, and the civilian government suggest the effort in Afghanistan is in serious danger. Pakistan controls the only useful overland route to supply the NATO troops.
You may remember in the fairly recent past, the bridge in the area being blown up, and a period where the border was closed and the supply trucks all burned.
It’s decision time in Pakistan.
If an intense bright flash goes off in an American city, we’ll know their answer.
Keep an eye on things happening in India. A flareup in Kashmir could be a useful distraction.