The ship may be turning… A few more rallies with Mexican thugs beating up Trump supporters could go a long way toward making America great again. You may remember the protests in 2006 where Spanish language radio got a million protestors waving Mexican flags in Los Angeles and the resulting backlash.
A guest on John Batchelor said Indiana has special rules / laws? that make it difficult to do election polling, so there hasn’t been a reliable poll until today (for the Tuesday election).
Indiana is not a “safe state” for either party – Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and Mitt Romney won in 2012, but only with 54%. The Republican Governor of Indiana gave a tepid “endorsement” of Ted Cruz a few days ago.
It was believed that Trump was leading in Indiana, but not by enough to be sure. 27 of the 57 delegates are bound by Congressional district (3×9) and 30 are winner take all at the state level. Note Indiana isn’t electing anyone on Tuesday – the delegates going to Cleveland were selected two weeks ago – the only thing the election does is bind the delegates to the winners for the first ballot.
On the Republican side, registered voters vs likely voters show little difference. On the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are much less likely to actually vote.
Trump (49%) now has a +15% lead over Cruz (34%) and a 36% lead over Kasich. The Cruz / Kasich “deal” to cooperate against Trump really backfired based on the questions they asked.
More interesting is the general election. Republicans lead in every combination except that Sanders would defeat Cruz. Trump leads Hillary by 7%. Kasich vs Clinton has Kasich winning by 19%. At least some Democrats would vote for Kasich rather than the third term of Bill Clinton.
At the point people start to believe Trump can win in November, things get much more dangerous. Cinco de Mayo is this week. I wonder what Trump is planning to do.
And happy International Socialist Workers Day, comrades!
I can’t find any info on Trump’s plans. Latino groups around the country are planning Trump Piñata bashing, but nothing else.
I’ve tweaked the Electoral vote estimates – where a poll exists (like today’s Ohio polls), I’ll only count the state as “safe” if a candidate has a 5% lead.
Assuming Trump and Hillary lock in their nominations, I would expect a flurry of Trump vs Hillary polls instead of many to many.
Republicans are concerned that Trump isn’t busy setting up a fundraising effort to fund a national campaign staff. They still don’t get it. If I was a media outlet owner, the message should start to sink in that my revenue from political ads might fall off a cliff this year.