By “Win”, I mean – can the Republicans get control of the US Senate with a big enough majority to not face filibusters if the Republicans win the Presidential race and they retain control of the House.
There are 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans today. In 2012, there are 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans who will be running for reelection or retiring
(8 have already announced they aren’t going to run again – Kohl(D-WI), Lieberman(D-CT), Kyl(R-AZ), Conrad(D-ND), Hutichisson (R-TX), Webb (D-VA), Bingaman(D-NM), Akaka(D-HI)
So assuming that no other Senators retire early or switch parties… there will be 30 incumbent Democrats and 37 incumbent Republicans. If every Republican wins (not likely), there would be 70 Republicans and 30 Democrats. If every Democrat won, there would be 66 Democrats and 37 Republicans – that’s the theoretical range of possibilities. To be “filibuster proof” (like a repeal of Obamacare) would require Republicans to win 23 out of 33 races.
Should Republicans win control of the Senate, but not President, then the important number is the presidential veto override, that requires 2/3 or 67 Senators (plus 2/3 of the House). To have 67 Senators would mean the Republicans would have to win 30 of 33 races, pretty close to impossible.
So those are the realistic outcomes.
Can enough candidates wearing the “R” label win in sufficient numbers to block filibusters? Of course. Will enough successful candidates wearing the “R” label turn out to be actual conservatives? Ay, there’s the rub.
The Republicans would have stood a much better chance of winning the hat trick in 2012 if they hadn’t compromised so much on the debt ceiling bill. Whenever the nation’s predominately conservative-libertarian electorate believes that their only choice at the polling booth is between BIG government and HUGE government – they stay home. And that’s how we get election results like 1992 and 2008.