Results match up with the numbers already in the guesstimate – Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins everything else. Rubio underperformed all the poll estimates. He has no chance to win any state (although he won Puerto Rico and DC). His goose is cooked.
An error on my part was giving Trump Ohio’s delegates even if Kasich won. Trump does not have enough to win on the first ballot. California is clearly now going to decide this issue. It’s the only pot of delegates not already in the Trump pile he can grab.
Kasich will likely stay in – of the three likely nominees, he would do the best in November against Hillary or Sanders. But there is no way he can win on the first ballot. If Trump quits (as opposed to suspending his campaign), Kasich will be the nominee. He is palatable enough to establishment Republicans and likely to pick up the disaffected Bernie voters in November.
Sheldon Adelson’s cabana boy has suspended his campaign. That means Rubio’s delegates remain bound to him on the first ballot.
The most recent national poll:
Clinton vs Kasich – Kasich wins +7%
Clinton vs Trump – Hillary wins +13
Clinton vs Cruz – Hillary wins +2
That’s somewhat misleading as you need to look at electoral votes, not popular
If Cruz wins in Missouri, Trump will not win on the 1st ballot in Cleveland.
Missouri is going to a recount. Provisional ballots might make the difference
My sincere apologies, but Hillary doesn’t win against anyone. What Hillary relies on is the dead vote, the labor phantom vote and the repeated votes of loyal party members across this fine nation. She cannot win in an honest contest with any of the Republicans – the polls you see are fairly well rigged – I can explain how its done, I have taken some of them.
The difference between Hillary and Sanders in the exit polls is profound (CNN has theirs online), for instance
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/il/Dem
Not surprisingly, Hillary does better among women. Hillary gets the NPR demo – white senior 65+ year old women with advanced degrees and low income. Bernie gets 80%+ of the younger than 30 vote and Hillary gets 70% of the senior vote. The purpose of Operation Chaos is to fracture the Democratic Party.
Clinton also consistently is getting 70-90% of black Democrats, which make up about one third of the Democratic Party.
The flaw to CNN’s polls is they poll registered voters, not likely voters. Low turnout in the black community has been a constant challenge for Democrats unless the candidate is black.
The polls of Hillary vs X on a state by state basis haven been done by a number of different polling agencies. The millennials who want Sanders are not going to vote for Trump or Cruz, but most will not vote for Hillary either. A lot can change in 6 months.
Trump says he is through with debates. Kasich and Cruz “debating” without Trump will be curious.
Trump says if he doesn’t have the necessary delegates in Cleveland, but has the most – “riots” will break out in the convention hall.
He doesn’t yet understand that 90% of “his” delegates hate his guts because they will be selected by the party, not him. Their only obligation is to vote for him one time. Even that is realistically not enforceable.
He’s going to quit. Take that to the bank.
Yeah I was worried about that Fred. I figured that most of those ‘delegates’ were hard core ‘Establishment’ RINO’s. ( I say RINO cause if they were republicans, they would have thrown the cronies out of DC)
So Fred is probably right , they hate Trump. Sad because they will absolutely destroy the republican ‘Brand’ if they don’t go with the popular vote, and try to force more establishment on everyone.
There is more people awake and tired of the politics as usual, Establishment BS, political correctness, and outrageous spending.
The Dems in the 90’tried it with clinky. Hillery healthcare and banned certain rifles. They lost the senate and House. The repubs didn’t do anything once they got in, just fed their cronies. Dems back in at the end of second bush. They do what they do , obo-care, you didn’t build that, raise taxes, black panther stop voters in Philadelphia, Bengazi, IRS running roughshod. So lets try Repubs back in House. ‘We can’t do anything unless we have senate’. So we give them Senate. ‘We can’t do anything cause we are bought off too’
So here we are , Trump. Everyone is hoping he cleans house.
Bad thing he could end up like the Kennedy brothers , Martin, Judge Scalia, and they tried to get rid of mr. Reagan. Establishment don’t like outsiders or muckrakers.
Trump should kick Chairman Mao Pantsuit clinton’s ass in a general election.
Bernies bunch won’t show up.
Real independents and Real repubs will vote even if it is snowing.
“More number crunching. Massive turnouts folks. Trump got half a million votes tonight in Illinois. That’s 500k in Charlotte speak,”
and Hillary only won by 29,000 over Bernie. That’s half a single Cook Co. suburb. Not much
She *should* have gotten well over a million and a half tonight and failed. Bernie put serious crimp in her armor.
Whoever the Republican nominee is will be, well within striking distance of her. The stage is set for November. Trump is turning out the Vote, its really increased in folks participating. If the Establishment squelches that , it will be years or a generation before people get involved in politics again.
Best
parrott
Glenn Beck, admittedly biased in favor of Cruz, said that Cruz is the only GOP candidate who beats Hilary in a national poll. He probably beats Bernie as well.
>”Glenn Beck, admittedly biased in favor of Cruz, said that Cruz is the only GOP candidate who beats Hilary in a national poll. He probably beats Bernie as well.” <
Whaaaat ?
parrott
Only the poll inside Glenn’s brain…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
Not to beat a dead horse, but the electoral college is the end game, not popular vote or polls
I’ve updated the electoral college projection with newer polls, deleted Rubio and added it to the sticky post.
The most lopsided matchup is Sanders vs Trump
Needing 270 votes, Sanders already has 252 with just the states polled + 60% safe states
Sanders: CA, FL, IL, PA, OH, MI, NC, AZ, MA, MD, HI, NH, RI, DC, VT
Trump: GA, TN, AL, KY, OK, AR, KS, UT, NE, WV, ID, ND, SD, WY
That’s with states between 40-60% in 2012 “up in the air”
If I narrow it to 45-55%
Trump adds TX, IN, MO, SC, LA, MS, MT
Sanders adds NJ, WA, CT, DE
Sanders: 292, Trump 180
Well, I stand corrected. I didn’t think Bernie would do that well in the general election.
I don’t think he’ll get the nomination though.
Side question, what happens to the delegates of the candidates that drop out? I know Ben Carson is endorsing Trump (!), but does that mean Carson’s pledging his delegates to him?
Your observation makes it necessary to point out that “operation chaos” was counterproductive. I also had assumed that a Sanders candidacy would result in a massive Democratic Party loss, when he is in fact more likely to win.
For the side question, there is an important difference between “I quit” versus “I suspend my campaign”. If a candidate quits, their delegates are released to vote for whomever they choose on the first ballot. Who they would vote for is highly speculative. Each state is different in terms of how those specific delegates are selected. Delegates pay their own expenses, which will be around $3000-$6000, included the $900 to get in the door. Every delegate (except the RNC members) has an alternate in case the primary delegate doesn’t show up or has a medical emergency, etc
If the candidate only suspends, their delegates are bound for the all important first ballot. Trump is the only person with a possible first ballot win. It’s down to a binary choice – Trump or Brokered. If the first ballot has no winner, 60% of the delegates become unbound. That’s why the loyalties of the individual delegates matter. The state chairmen will carry a lot of weight over the delegates – maybe.
One of the issues bouncing around in the rules committee is whether the RNC delegates (3 from each state) are bound to the candidate that wins their state. In January, they decided the answer is “Yes”. If they reverse that decision, 168 votes go up for grabs, but that doesn’t mean Trump loses -168 because maybe 30 are already bound to the others. US Virgin Islands might end up picking the nominee.