Ohio, the state with 3 vowels is the key one tonight. Ohio is “winner take all”, but much closer to a tie than Florida. Kasich going “all in for amnesty” at the last minute may backfire. If Trump wins Ohio, the “establishment” will go apeshit.
The focus will shift to California, which doesn’t have a solid poll yet.
Trump is in way in front in New York and New Jersey. Polls get a bit thin after today, because people expected the race to be decided by now.
If Kasich and Rubio drop out, the Republican Party is left to the choice of Death by hanging or death by poison – or suicide. As much as I dislike Karl Rove, you can’t ignore electoral college realities. Right now either Democrat beats any Republican – especially Ted Cruz.
My wildly speculative guess is the RNC will call off the convention in Cleveland over “security concerns” and meet in a safe quiet location like Utah. They still might nominate Trump, but without the TV spectacle of rent a mob riots and Republicans slugging each other on live TV in front of a global audience.
Not that anyone cares, but voting appeared to be very light in my precinct. Today was the first election where picture ID was required. The couple in front of me appeared to be Indian and were reading the ballot for the first time.
When I brought up the subject of the January 7th primary with the poll workers (a special election caused by the courts), it was the first time the topic had come up. There was certainly no “public notice” alerting people they need to return on June 7th.
CNN is saying Kasich will win Ohio. If that’s true, I have a strong theory why. Trump did something not very smart – while in Ohio, he hammered Kasich, who was elected by the Republicans of Obio. He did the same thing going after Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. When an Ohioan hears an outsider say “your governor is stupid” that can be heard as “you are stupid”
There is a very peculiar divide so far on county by county – Trump winning Cincinnati and the counties that border Pennsylvania and WV (Youngstown, etc) but Kasich carrying the rest of the state…
Gosh, Fox news was absolutely ‘giddy’ that ‘catshit’ won Ohio. I guess buckeyes like illegal aliens taking their jobs. I am so tired of the Establishment.
Let him stay in the race. I hope Trump beats him like a rented mule !
I bet Charlie rose puts a Darlington-Stripe in his under-ware tomorrow morning when Gail King tells him Trump beat his boys marco & Catshit like a drum in Florida! LOL
( I only watch it CBS This Morning because of Nora O’Donnell.) There is only 6 of us that do watch in Virginia, LOL
Nora is nice : ) easy on the eye in the morning, but just a little elitist.
I could fix that, ‘Growl’ LOL
“Kasich won Ohio, not a huge surprise by most anyone’s analysis but Kasich apparently will not get over 50% in his home state. That IMO is -not- a strong showing at all and does not bode well for Kasich moving forward. ”
It isn’t over yet you delusional Nafta lovin, 90’s rifle ban RINO ! Big win my arse !
parrott
I’m pretty sure the marching orders went out to Democrats to vote for Kasich.
Trump is really pretty stupid. Calling Cruz a liar could come back to hurt him when it is time to put the cards on the table. If Cruz comes in second but Trump doesn’t have enough, Cruz releasing his delegates could put Trump over the top – trump and Cruz are similar enough that some Cruz supporters would switch to trump. More likely Cruz would sit tight and let Kasich win on the second ballot.
An alternate opinion, if you will. Trump isn’t stupid – he works on emotion and what his ground force is telling him. He wanted to point out that Kasich wasn’t perfect and that taxes in Ohio rival the big three. Choice of words – how do you get a point across in this ideological haze? Make bold and brash statements. Anything Trump does can come back to hurt him, but the same applies to all of the candidates. Kasich being seem with Romney removed my vote from contention. He didn’t have to say anything – he became an establishment patsy all by himself and without a word said.
Kasich wants to go to the convention and take all of the delegates after the first round. It won’t work and the base won’t go along with the shenanigans the establishment has in mind. Remember the Whig party? This will be the swan song of the Republican Party – get ready for Ms. Hillary as President.
If the convention makes the choice independently – either because Trump withdraws or on the second ballot, the state conventions become very important. They choose the actual delegates who will vote in Quicken Loans arena. Trump has no organization within those states – Ted Cruz does. If the TEA party swarms the county, district and state conventions (each state is different), he might get his people in the hall for the.second ballot. Around 60% of the delegates get freed after the first ballot. How they vote is hard to guess.
I like Ted a lot. My concern is if Trump is close and the Rules Committee pulls the rug – Trump goes third party. It won’t matter what the RNC does at that point.
Trump’s little outburst that there will be riots inside the Arena reinforces my opinion that his goal has been the destruction of the Republican Party. If the RNC doesn’t change the rules, Trump will still quit.
I’m going to write a blurb on the (almost) worst case scenario…
Jim Webb would point out that the counties that Trump won are the Scots-Irish Appalachian American dominated ones in Ohio. He also wrote a WSJ column a week before the 2004 election pointing out that they would tip the presidency to Bush because they would not change leaders in mid-war, even if they didn´t really agree with him totally, because it was cowardice in front of the enemy.
Excellent insight Haiti222, spot on. I think a lot of people voted that way , only. Didn’t want a Vietnam fiasco of a cut and run.
Happy St.Patrick’s day everyone!
Did any of you get a looksie at Nora’s Green dress today on CBS this morning? LOL Of course not.
Quite the low cut, very nice. ( I’ll stop there) : )
have a good one !
Parrott
Unfortunately, after the 2006 election, George W Bush did the cutting and running, letting the economy fall apart and left the country on autopilot, ignoring his own party. I voted for W in 2004 largely for that same issue, but he goes down on my list of worst Presidents. His deriliction of duty and failure to back Romney (or Romney’s rejection of Bush) gave us President Obama.
I just looked at the county by county maps for North Carolina. On the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders won pretty much all of the mountain counties and almost nothing else. Asheville is something of a special case, but my impression is those mountain counties are full of scotch Irish types of long standing, hence the folk music, dulcimers, playing spoons, Highland games, and the Protestant flavor of Jesus.
http://digitalheritage.org/2011/12/the-migration-of-the-scotch-irish-from-ulster-to-western-north-carolina/