Rule 40(b) – I am not a lawyer

I was discussing rule 40 down in the comments of This post If you missed it.

Morton Blackwell is a very senior Republican active in the RNC rules committee and he is on the warpath.

Red State opinion

He has been involved in the fight over rule 40 and states things as facts that contradict reasonableness and common sense – but he has to be correct.

I’ve asserted that the language about putting candidates in nomination was only to limit TV time, but that delegates who were elected and bound to a candidate who did not meet the threshold of having 50% of the delegates of eight states would be prohibited from voting for their candidate and be counted in the tally. Even more obnoxious – if the first ballot does not result in a winner, no new candidates (for instance Paul Ryan) can be added to the list of authorized candidates.

Mr Backwell proposed undoing the “Romney Rule” and got the rules committee to agree with him, but then Mr Priebus and the RNC lawyers had a chat and the members undid the repeal of the Romney Rule.

I still believe the convention itself could vote to suspend the rule with a much lower threshold. There could also be changes in the rules committee the week before the convention, or on the floor of the convention. That typically isn’t covered on national TV, but might be on C-SPAN or Fox News.

So let’s say the rule “sticks”. Which candidates have won a majority (50%+1) of a state’s delegates?

Trump: Georgia, Illinois, Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri*, South Carolina, Alabama, Massachsetts, Mississippi
Cruz: Texas, Wisconsin, Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, Idaho, Maine
Kasich: Ohio
Rubio: None
Carson: none
Nobody: North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, Alaska, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Vermont**

Still to vote: CA, PA, IN, NJ, WA, MD, WV, SD, OR, ND, MT, NM, RI, DE

* Cruz could call for a recount in Missouri – if he doesn’t or if Trump wins the recount, Trump gets the state. If Cruz wins the recount, he gets the majority rule
** Vermont is an 8-8 tie between Trump & Kasich

Another probable tactic will be a credentials fight on the first day. Challenges can be made against members of a delegation to try to get other people seated who are actually aligned with the candidate who won their state. Most of the delegates will be hungover from the parties and have no clue of what is going on, even if they show up.