Brian alluded to this a while back and I didn’t push him on details
Bloomberg, the news provider with zero credibility on politics just released a poll showing Hillary with a huge lead over Trump
Assuming the questions were asked in this sequence, they start by asking how President Obama is doing and which issues are the most important to you from a list they suggest – and then ask which candidate you will vote for. This is your classic “push poll” where you are soliciting the desired result you want. The sample has been weighted by race and age. 1,000 people is a too small sample for a reliable national survey. Each respondent is equivalent to 200,000 voters. That’s a 3.6% margin of error, even if performed correctly.
Note they did not ask “are you registered to vote?”. That means illegal aliens, permanent resident aliens and convicted felons were included.
72% of voting age people said they are definitely going to vote. Turnout in 2012 was 70% among registered voters, a bit over half of the voting age population. If you ask people if they look at porn in the Internet, they’ll say “no”, yet the largest bandwidth user are porn sites. What people say they do and what they really do are often very different.
When it comes to the election, there is no substitute for state by state polls, since the electoral college is “winner take all”. If Hillary wins 72% of the vote in California, the extra 2 million voters don’t slosh over to other states. Even if their sample was geographically proportional, North Carolina would have had about 40 people polled. 40 items from a sample of 7.6 million is a 15% margin of error
Ann Selzer is the pollster for the Des Moines register in Iowa
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/
The firm has two people.
The most accurate pollster in Iowa predicted Trump would win the caucus 28-23%
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/01/30/the-final-selzer-iowa-poll-before-the-caucus-says/
Ted Cruz won 27-24%
I kinda worry that Trump is not doing well in the Polls. I havn’t seen a quinnepiack poll lately. I think the anti-hilliary crowd is more motivated to get out to vote. I mean every person that who shows up at my favorite firearms establishment, dislikes the globalist Hilliary crap. I had one guy tell me that “Hilliary is very bad man” he is originally from Ecuador.
But there are drones that are following clinky and think that her and Eliza (Hi-How-are-yeh) warren are the best thing since sliced bread !
warren can’t find her way out of a paper bag ! Good Gosh ! You should have a IQ o0 60 to Vote !
I am not voting for the Reptile !
parrott
Quinnipiac specializes in polls in only a few states where they understand the demographics and have a good population sample. National polls are much harder to do.
They don’t do commissioned polls and they rely heavily on students with thorough training to do the polls from a facility they operate themselves they don’t appear to have the political bias of Bloomberg or Rasmussen to the extent one can avoid it. I have a vague memory of being called on a Rasmussen poll. It was an automated system that operated using automated response systems. While it is impersonal, it ensures things like randomized answers, avoiding accidental voice inflections and people feeling they are being “judged” by the interviewer.