The Trump campaign has announced the VP choice will be announced Friday. There is some reason to believe that choice will be Newt Gingrich. Newt plugs a big hit hole in that he knows how the government works in great detail.
My prediction is still in place that I don’t think Trump will be on the ballot in November. The VP choice could be a way for Trump to leave the process without destroying the Republican Party. Let’s say Trump / Gingrich are the nominees. After the convention, the process is that the delegation of each state returns home and files the paperwork with their Secretary of State of which name goes on the ballot. If Trump withdraws, presumably the VP nominee would replace Trump on the ballot. If the withdrawal happened close to November, Trump would be on the ballot but the electors would probably vote for the replacement.
That would be a Black Swan event. Possible but virtually no one is expecting it.
My Black Swan event it that Donald J Trump selects Rand Paul as the VP candidate.
The reason people on Batchelor think Newt has the momentum is Fox News pulling Newt off the air. Pence is the other contender unless Trump is hiding something. Pence’s problem is he has zero name recognition outside of Indiana. On the other hand, Dan Quayle was an unknown.
The Democratic spambots have been poking at the issue both of them having marriage issues. I’m not suggesting Newt would win, just that he might calm the Dump Trump movement. On the other hand, Newt was forced out as speaker by his own party. Women will probably not vote for Newt. Hair is a big deal.
Too bad the most qualified candidates don’t get traction. I would expect Newt to be competent to a tee. Pence isn’t recognized, but he is a stalwart chap. I would pick Condoleeza Rice if I had the chance.
I think it is Newt too but the media has been pensive about Pence.
CNN reported that Christie had put Trump’s daughter’s father-in-law in prison. One of Trump’s core values seems to be loyalty. Trump’s daughter and her husband have been close advisers on the campaign so it is unlikely he will go against them and choose Christie.
Christie is pushing hard for a 23 cent per gallon gas tax increase in NJ. The gas tax has been used to build footpaths, walls on the highways to obstruct views around curves and turns (home owners wanted privacy) and to subsidize the train and bus rides used by Wall Street workers so that they pay for less than half the cost of their train rides.
At least the people from Philadelphia can get to the Atlantic City casinos by train!
… and the people from Atlantic City can get to the Philadelphia casinos by NJ taxpayer subsidized train where they can also do their shopping an pay a lower sales tax than if they shopped in Atlantic City or anywhere else in NJ.
Rumor is a lot of people in Atlantic City go to the poor house and wind up in jail until they can take a ride on the Reading Railroad. The Philly terminal for the Reading is a bit run down, though
https://youtu.be/7j85N6JzrUs
CBS / NY Times has Hillary vs Trump as a tie… Rasmussen has Trump up +7
At the point Democrats start to believe Trump might win (Oh Shit!), that’s when the indictments and stories that Trump makes sea turtle soup will hit. Perhaps CBS/NYT want to provoke that reaction, maybe they just want viewers / readers next week.
If this is a genuine change, it is white voters getting a wake up call seeing the President going to Dallas and blaming the murders of the policeman on something they had nothing to do with. You have to be about 60 to have solid memories of the 1960s and the race riots. Even Hispanics might smell the danger.
Applying the state polls from Quinnipiac and accepting the CBS/NYT poll as accurate, Donald Trump is now in the lead in the electoral vote.
If you accept the Rasmussen +7, the Trump wins with 40 electoral votes to spare