About 20% of Americans want to vote for whoever they think is going to win, without much more thought. Today’s group of polls have Trump taking the lead in the electoral vote estimate for the first time.
Needing 270 to win, my current estimate is
Trump 250 Clinton 222
I’ve set the national +/- to zero. Since we are a week from the election, the poll margin to decide one way or the other is +3% – in other words, if the candidate in the lead has more than 3% lead, that state is in the safe category. Of course, voter fraud is hard to estimate. The biggest marker is the pollsters who want to show Trump is behind are losing control of the polling fraud.
Today’s change is several states reverting to tossup, and Florida going back to Trump based on two polls. North Carolina is swinging back to Trump. Texas has been in the “tied” group for a while. Trump is still ahead, but not by a huuuuge margin.
So here is the state by state breakdown, largest first
CA, NY, IL, MI, NJ, WA, MA, MD, MN, WI, CT, OR, HI, ME, RI, DE, DC, VT
TX, FL, OH, GA, AZ, IN, TN, MO, AL, SC, KY, LA, OK, AR, KS, MS, NV, UT, NE, WV, ID, AK, MT, ND, SD, WY
Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire
The wild card here is Evan McMullin. Trump is only slightly ahead in Utah. McMullin is also on the ballot in several states with large Mormon populations, but aren’t able to state him in polls. I doubt McMullin has a chance of winning anywhere but Utah, but he might throw a state like Colorado to Hillary. The possibility of the House choosing between Hillary, Trump and McMullin is becoming a real possibility.