So the conclusion 4 days out is – there is no obvious winner on Tuesday. That by itself is pretty profound. With Donald J Trump getting almost no support from his own party and every major media outlet working against him, he still might win. How much voting fraud there is and how low black turnout really is what will decide the race. Last minute shifts of millenials to Trump may also be a surprise.
Right now, my estimate has Hillary with 271, but that is off by one. Maine gives its electoral votes by congressional district – while Hillary is leading the state, Trump will win one CD
The difference between the two sets of numbers on the estimate post is mostly Michigan. Michigan has slipped into the tossup category, but Michigan went Democrat for Obama by enough that the 271 number assumes Michigan will still go for Hillary.
Hey, the Cubs won the World Series – anything is possible.