With Dick Lugar losing and Mitt Romney locked in as the Republican candidate for President, it’s time to look at the US Senate race more closely. If Romney wins, but loses the Senate or only has a 1 or 2 vote majority, he is in a weak position to make significant changes, like repealing RomneyCare….. errr ObamaCare. You may remember in the past, Jim Jeffords of Vermont decided in 200 that it wasn’t safe for Republicans to control the Senate and switched to become Democrat after the election, giving effective control of the Senate to Democrats in 2001 with a 50/50 tie.
With squishy Republicans like Susan Collins (ME) and the ever likely possibility of Democrats funding legal election dispute witch hunts and recall elections, it’s important not to allow one senate seat to be the margin of victory. Ideally, Republicans would control 60 seats to prevent the filibuster being used to block Republican initiatives.
Looking over the list, it’s striking what a watershed year 2006 was, when the country strongly repudiated George W Bush in the middle of his second term, switching control for the US Senate from Republican to Democrat with 6 seats going Democrat. Those Senators are up for their first reelection challenge, having served 3 of their 6 years without even being able to pass a budget resolution. 11 of the 33 up for reelection are retiring (7 Democrats, 4 Republicans) and 1 (or possibly 2) Republicans getting forced retirement in the primary elections.
2012 US Senate Races
| State | Obama 2008 % | Incombant | Party | Since | Status | Challengers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not up for election | 37 (R) 30 (D) | |||||
| Arizona | 45% | John Kyl | Republican | 1994 | Retiring | Primary August 28th |
| California | 51% | Dianne Feinstein | Democrat | 1992 | Running | Elizabeth Emken (R) Autism Speaks |
| Connecticut | 59% | Joe Lieberman | Democrat | 1988 | Retiring | Primary August 14th |
| Delaware | 61% | Tom Carper | Democrat | 2000 | Running | Primary September 11 |
| Florida | 51% | Bill Nelson | Democrat | 2000 | Running | George LeMieux (R) |
| Hawaii | 72% | Daniel Akaka | Democrat | 1990 | Retiring | Primary August 11 Mazie Hirono (D) Linda Lingle (R) |
| Indiana | 50% | Richard Lugar | Republican | 1976 | Defeated in Primary | Richard Mourdock (R) Joe Donnelly, (D) |
| Maine | 58% | Olympia Snowe | Republican | 1994 | Retiring | Primary June 12 |
| Maryland | 61% | Ben Cardin | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Dan Bongino (R) |
| Massachusetts | 62% | Scott Brown | Republican | 2010 | Running | Primary September 6 |
| Michigan | 57% | Debbie Stabenow | Democrat | 2000 | Running | Primary August 7 |
| Minnesota | 54% | Amy Klobuchar | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Primary August 14 |
| Mississippi | 43% | Richard Wicker | Republican | 2006 | Running | Al N Gore, Jr (D) |
| Missouri | 49% | Claire McCaskill | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Primary August 7th |
| Montana | 47% | Jojhn Tester | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Denny Rehberg(R) |
| Nebraska | 41% | Ben Nelson | Democrat | 2000 | Retiring | Deb Brown (R) Bob Kerrey (D) (former Sen) |
| Nevada | 55% | Dean Heller | Republican | 2011 | Appointed, running | Primary June 12 |
| New Jersey | 57% | Bob Menendez | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Joe Kyrillo (R) |
| New Mexico | 56% | Jeff Bingamen | Democrat | 1982 | Retiring | Heather Wilson (R) Martin Heinrich (D) |
| New York | 63% | Kirsten Gillibrand | Democrat | 2009 | Running | Primary June 26 |
| North Dakota | 44% | Kent Conrad | Democrat | 1986 | Retiring | Primary June 12 |
| Ohio | 51% | Sherrod Brown | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Josh Mandell(R) |
| Pennsylvania | 55% | Bob Casey, Jr | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Tom Smith (R) |
| Rhode island | 53% | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democrat | 2006 | Running | Primary September 11 |
| Tennessee | 41% | Bob Corker | Republican | 2006 | Running | Primary August 2nd |
| Texas | 43% | Key Bailey Hutchison | Republican | 1993 | Retiring | Runoff July 31 Dewhurst/Cruz (R) Sadler/Yarbrough (D) |
| Utah | 34% | Orrin Hatch | Republican | 1976 | Running Primary challenge | Dan Liljenquist (R) Scott Howell (D) |
| Vermont | 67% | Bernie Sanders | Socialist | 2006 | Running | H. Brooke Paige (R) |
| Virginia | 53% | Jim Webb | Democrat | 2006 | Retiring | George Allen (R) Tim Kaine(D) |
| Washington | 58% | Maria Cantwell | Democrat | 2000 | Running | Michael Baumgartner (R) |
| West Virginia | 42% | Joe Manchin | Democrat | 2006 | Retiring | John Raese (R) |
| Wisconsin | 56% | Herb Kohl | Democrat | 1988 | Retiring | Primary August 14 |
| Wyoming | 32% | Joe Barrasso | Republican | 2007 | Running | Primary August 21 |
So Just my own guesses looking at the above:
Republicans very likely to be reelected:
Wicker (MS), Corker (TN), Hatch (UT), Barrasso (WY)
Republicans vulnerable:
Lugar (IN), Brown (MA), Heller (NV)
Democrats very likely to be reelected:
Liebermann (CT), Carper (DE), Cardin (MD), Klobuchar (MN), Menendez (NJ), Bingamen (NM), Gillibrand (NY), Casey (PA), Whitehouse (RI), Sanders(VT), Cantwell(WA)Democrats vulnerable:
Feinstein(CA), Nelson (FL), Stabenow (MI), McCaskell (MO), Tester (MT), Conrad (ND)
Open seats likely to go Democrat
Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Wisconsin, New Mexico
Open seats likely to go Republican
Arizona, Nebraska, Texas, North Dakota, West Virginia
So “worst case” for the Democrats would be to only have 45 seats
Of course, a lot can happen between now and November
Didn’t Joe Lieberman announce last year that he wasn’t running for reelection? I hadn’t heard anything about him changing his mind, but I might have missed it.
Good catch! You would think since I’m in Connecticut I would remember that, but I’m about as unconnected as you can imagine with Connecticut politics.
I vaguely remember someone saying Chris Shays was running for the GOP nomination, which would give them at least a fighting chance to take that seat.
Well we may get 6 years of big Lib Kaine if George Allen gets liquored up and runs his mouth again. Northern Virginia is getting is opposite of western & the southside of Virginia. Norfolk/Virginia Beach is republican mostly cause of the Military presence there. But the population is on the wane south of Culpepper.
A lot of Marylanders left Maryland and now live in NOVA cause they didn’t like high taxes, but yet they for for big libs that are always wanting to raise taxes when they get in the General Assembly. They crapped on themselves in Maryland and now they are doing the same in Virginia. Idiots
I would like to vote for the Tea party candidate but I don’t want Kaine in the senate. He is a total dork.
Parrott