2012 US Senate Race

With Dick Lugar losing and Mitt Romney locked in as the Republican candidate for President, it’s time to look at the US Senate race more closely.   If Romney wins, but loses the Senate or only has a 1 or 2 vote majority, he is in a weak position to make significant changes, like repealing RomneyCare…..  errr  ObamaCare.  You may remember in the past, Jim Jeffords of Vermont decided in 200 that it wasn’t safe for Republicans to control the Senate and switched to become Democrat after the election, giving effective control of the Senate to Democrats in 2001 with a 50/50 tie.

With squishy Republicans like Susan Collins (ME) and the ever likely possibility of Democrats funding legal election dispute witch hunts and recall elections, it’s important not to allow one senate seat to be the margin of victory.  Ideally, Republicans would control 60 seats to prevent the filibuster being used to block Republican initiatives.

Looking over the list, it’s striking what a watershed year 2006 was, when the country strongly repudiated George W Bush in the middle of his second term, switching control for the US Senate from Republican to Democrat with 6 seats going Democrat.    Those Senators are up for their first reelection challenge, having served 3 of their 6 years without even being able to pass a budget resolution.   11 of the 33 up for reelection are retiring (7 Democrats, 4 Republicans) and 1 (or possibly 2) Republicans getting forced retirement in the primary elections.

2012 US Senate Races

StateObama
2008 %
IncombantPartySinceStatusChallengers
Not up for election37 (R)
30 (D)
Arizona45%John KylRepublican 1994RetiringPrimary August 28th
California51%Dianne FeinsteinDemocrat 1992RunningElizabeth Emken (R)
Autism Speaks
Connecticut59%Joe LiebermanDemocrat 1988RetiringPrimary August 14th
Delaware61%Tom CarperDemocrat 2000RunningPrimary September 11
Florida51%Bill NelsonDemocrat2000RunningGeorge LeMieux (R)
Hawaii72%Daniel AkakaDemocrat1990RetiringPrimary August 11
Mazie Hirono (D)
Linda Lingle (R)
Indiana50%Richard LugarRepublican 1976Defeated in PrimaryRichard Mourdock (R)
Joe Donnelly, (D)
Maine58%Olympia SnoweRepublican1994RetiringPrimary June 12
Maryland61%Ben CardinDemocrat2006RunningDan Bongino (R)
Massachusetts62%Scott BrownRepublican 2010RunningPrimary September 6
Michigan57%Debbie StabenowDemocrat 2000RunningPrimary August 7
Minnesota54%Amy KlobucharDemocrat 2006RunningPrimary August 14
Mississippi43%Richard WickerRepublican 2006RunningAl N Gore, Jr (D)
Missouri49%Claire McCaskillDemocrat2006RunningPrimary August 7th
Montana47%Jojhn TesterDemocrat 2006RunningDenny Rehberg(R)
Nebraska41%Ben NelsonDemocrat 2000RetiringDeb Brown (R)
Bob Kerrey (D) (former Sen)
Nevada55%Dean HellerRepublican 2011Appointed, runningPrimary June 12
New Jersey57%Bob MenendezDemocrat 2006RunningJoe Kyrillo (R)
New Mexico56%Jeff BingamenDemocrat 1982RetiringHeather Wilson (R)
Martin Heinrich (D)
New York63%Kirsten GillibrandDemocrat2009RunningPrimary June 26
North Dakota44%Kent ConradDemocrat 1986RetiringPrimary June 12
Ohio51%Sherrod BrownDemocrat 2006RunningJosh Mandell(R)
Pennsylvania55%Bob Casey, JrDemocrat 2006RunningTom Smith (R)
Rhode island53%Sheldon WhitehouseDemocrat 2006RunningPrimary September 11
Tennessee41%Bob CorkerRepublican 2006RunningPrimary August 2nd
Texas43%Key Bailey HutchisonRepublican 1993RetiringRunoff July 31
Dewhurst/Cruz (R)
Sadler/Yarbrough (D)
Utah34%Orrin HatchRepublican 1976Running
Primary challenge
Dan Liljenquist (R)
Scott Howell (D)
Vermont67%Bernie SandersSocialist 2006RunningH. Brooke Paige (R)
Virginia53%Jim WebbDemocrat2006RetiringGeorge Allen (R)
Tim Kaine(D)
Washington58%Maria CantwellDemocrat 2000RunningMichael Baumgartner (R)
West Virginia42%Joe ManchinDemocrat 2006RetiringJohn Raese (R)
Wisconsin56%Herb Kohl Democrat 1988RetiringPrimary August 14
Wyoming32%Joe BarrassoRepublican 2007RunningPrimary August 21
Who is Running for US Senate in 2012 and do Republicans have a chance?
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5 Responses to 2012 US Senate Race

  1. Art Stone says:

    So Just my own guesses looking at the above:

    Republicans very likely to be reelected:
    Wicker (MS), Corker (TN), Hatch (UT), Barrasso (WY)
    Republicans vulnerable:
    Lugar (IN), Brown (MA), Heller (NV)
    Democrats very likely to be reelected:
    Liebermann (CT), Carper (DE), Cardin (MD), Klobuchar (MN), Menendez (NJ), Bingamen (NM), Gillibrand (NY), Casey (PA), Whitehouse (RI), Sanders(VT), Cantwell(WA)
    Democrats vulnerable:
    Feinstein(CA), Nelson (FL), Stabenow (MI), McCaskell (MO), Tester (MT), Conrad (ND)
    Open seats likely to go Democrat
    Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Wisconsin, New Mexico
    Open seats likely to go Republican
    Arizona, Nebraska, Texas, North Dakota, West Virginia

    So “worst case” for the Democrats would be to only have 45 seats

    Of course, a lot can happen between now and November

  2. Didn’t Joe Lieberman announce last year that he wasn’t running for reelection? I hadn’t heard anything about him changing his mind, but I might have missed it.

  3. Parrott says:

    Well we may get 6 years of big Lib Kaine if George Allen gets liquored up and runs his mouth again. Northern Virginia is getting is opposite of western & the southside of Virginia. Norfolk/Virginia Beach is republican mostly cause of the Military presence there. But the population is on the wane south of Culpepper.
    A lot of Marylanders left Maryland and now live in NOVA cause they didn’t like high taxes, but yet they for for big libs that are always wanting to raise taxes when they get in the General Assembly. They crapped on themselves in Maryland and now they are doing the same in Virginia. Idiots
    I would like to vote for the Tea party candidate but I don’t want Kaine in the senate. He is a total dork.
    Parrott

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