The #nevertrump invasion at Omaha Beach is under way. John Batchelor is on the beach. All the troops are swarming on the eve of Donald Trump winding up with ~250 more delegates than he needs to win.
All the knives are out – Trump is 70 years old and behaving like a 12 year old, he’s a racist, he has no idea how to run a campaign, blah blah bla
The trigger has been pulled on the plan that slipped out about a month ago. The “bound” delegates can just refuse to vote for Trump and he fails to get a win on the first ballot. Paul Ryan interprets the rules. Without a rules change or a suspension of the rules, the only other candidate eligible on the second ballot is Ted Cruz.
Marco Rubio has until June 24th to decide if he wants to run for US Senator to retake the seat he decided to resign in order to run for President. Paul Ryan saying he will vote for Trump in November is very different than saying he supports Trump.
You know all along I’ve said Trump won’t be the nominee no matter how many delegates he has. So what happens when the party ignores the primary results and selects say… Jeb Bush. What does Trump do, what do his supporters do, what happens in November?
If Trump isn’t the nominee:
1) The Republican Party ceases to exist.
2) Hillary wins
3) Trump continues on the ticket anyway. The establishment folks will get quite a comeuppance for their heresy.
4) A huge number of voters will probably not vote for local politicians in the races across the country – they are part of the problem.
5) The media will have a field day reporting on about anything that happens up to the election
Mark Halperin, one of the smart people analyzing the election made an on air prediction last week that one of the two “presumptive” nominees would not become the nominee. He said he had no inside information but that it was his “spidey sense”.
If you don’t like Hillary’s Kristol-like hawkishness, her opposition to the second amendment, or her endorsement of expanding the encouragement of people to drop out of the labor force, you should have a serious look at two term Republican Governor Gary Johnson and two term Republican Governor Bill Weld. They both won reelection easily in Blue states while Red governors and have 16 years executive leadership experience between them.
I go back and forth on John Batchelor. During the Libya invasion, he went one day from “what the hell are we doing trying to overthrow a sovereign government” to full throated “we have an obligation to kill Qaddafi”. He very much tailors what he says to his audience in the room.
Because it is what Batchelor does and who he hangs out with (Like Monica Crowley of Fox News and CFR member), over the past month the motivation of Batchelor and Fox News is getting very clear – what has brought them to war is Trump has no intention of raising a $ billion and spending it on TV ads and consultants and troops to go round up ballots from Alzheimer’s patients in nursing homes.
The lobbyist and consultants don’t like it either. They used to visit all the Congressmen except Ron Paul, whose office they would just pass by. Their explanation was that he knew what he believed and there was no point talking with him (greasing his palm with contributions). I would expect Trump to act similarly and that scares the lecherous class.
The key to the Republican strategy is they need Trump to withdraw in a way that doesn’t look like Republicans were responsible and Trump doesn’t do an independent run. Stringing him along means it is too late for a third party run – even more so by late July
The most obvious methods would be a sudden change in his health status (maybe the KGB could loan us that radioactive tea stuff) or a Democratic AG indicting Trump on some trumped up charge like NY characterizing Trump University as criminal fraud.
The latest incoming missile is from Florida, where the Republican AG fleeced Trump for a campaign contribution in 2013 (When Trump was still a Democrat) to make their Trump University investigation go away. AGs don’t normally get involved in civil lawsuit disputes
No. I like Trump. Maybe he can spread a little radioactive polonium around Congress and in Hillary’s breakfast. The world might be a better place.