Two polls released this morning show Trump and Hillary tied in the popular vote, but that can be misleading. If Hillary wins California by one vote or 10 million, she gets the same number of electoral votes.
While Hillary owns all of the big states except Texas, Trump has most of the rest of the country. Using the poll that they are tied, but looking at the individual states Trump is ahead. Here is the breakdown from largest to small
Safe States for Hillary:
California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Wisconsin, Colorado, Connecticut Oregon, Iowa, Nevada, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Delaware, DC, Vermont
Safe States for Trump:
Texas, Florida*, Pennsylvania*, Georgia, North Caolina, Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, Utah, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming,
Undecided:
Ohio, Virginia, Washington, Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine…
Of course, this is a snapshot before the conventions are complete. The asterisks are two important states which have state specific polls that recently flipped to Trump to put him in the lead. Ohio woukd put him over the top, but without Kasich, Trump might lose Ohio.