Despite Harry Reid’s desire to feed Donald Trump fake classified briefings (Reid is one vile son of a bitch), Donald Trump should soon have access to classified reports on the situation around the world. You might remember that Sarah Palin’s lack of basic knowledge about geopolitics and world geography surfaced when briefers were aghast at how little she knew.
I’ve been lukewarm about Trump. There are many reasons. An important marker to me is if he will change his populist opinions when he acquires actual knowledge or just doubles down.
The South China Sea thing is approaching “red hot”. The UN tribunal in The Hague ruled that the South China Sea is not territorial waters owned by China. China has said they don’t care and now have officially stated they will take military control of the South China Sea. They have a joint military exercise next month with Russia.
The countries most directly in the line of fire are Vietnam, Phillipines, Brunei, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The latter do not border the South China Sea, but rely on it for international shipping lanes.
The TPP is at its root an anti-China trade policy. It creates a trading partnership with Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. It is not primarily a trade deal with Mexico and Canada – NAFTA already covers that. Note that Taiwan, South Korea and the Phillipines are not involved.
The TPP countries are no match for China. Would President Trump risk nuclear war with China over this? He may not have to worry as President Obama might screw it up first. If the US and China break off economic relations first, and the Chinese dump their dollar denominated investments, the world could get very chaotic very quickly. Shoring up the TPP as a strategic alliance opposing China’s military aggression might become very important. You might remember that Japan’s invasion of mainland China ultimately lead to US involvement in World War II. The Koreans and Chinese have long memories when it comes to Japan.
Obama may screw it up first – to help Hillary, I bet. Chinese are very serious about the South China Sea and it won’t take a lot to light that fuse.
I guess Trump is now admitting that paying off the $18 trillion in debt in 8 years is not realistic