Archive for the ‘War in Europe’ Category

Who has nuclear weapons and how many?

Wednesday, October 5th, 2016

Russia is conducting a drill having 40 million people going to shelters built to survive a nuclear exchange with the United States. If one was expecting an actual nuclear exchange, that is exactly what you would do – except tell the people once they arrive that it is not a drill and to not come out until the war is over.

Even if Putin doesn’t really expect nuclear war, it will elicit a reaction that the situation is real. Putin has the support of around 80% of his people already. You see none of this preparation in the United States or Europe.

This story Considers the effect of a 20 megaton hydrogen bomb hitting a city.
Russia has none.

So who has how many nuclear weapons and how many?
World Inventory of Nuclear Weapons

United States

A few basic terms to understand these documents. A strategic weapon is a long range weapon used to directly attack your adversary. A non strategic nuclear weapon is a low yield weapon used primarily as a defensive weapon to stop the advance of the enemy in a conventional sense, blow up an airfield, a military base, etc. since the nuclear bombs leave behind radiation, the attacker can’t move through the territory they just bombed.

MIRV is “Multiple Independent Reentrant Vehicle”, which means one big rocket carrying multiple warheads that split apart near the target and explode individually. Many small weapons are more effective than one big one as force falls off based at least on the square of distance. Multiple weapons hitting a target from different directions what have blasts arriving from different directions at slightly different times. One of the arguments when negotiating treaties is whether a MIRVed missile is one per rocket or one per warhead.

Russian and the United States by far have most of the nuclear weapons in the world – about 92%.. How big each explosion would be is not straight forward. Some are deliberately variable yield, others may have deteriorated from not being maintained.

Based on the lists above:
– Russia has about 2,600 strategic warheads based on about 550 delivery vehicles
– United States has about 2000 warheads based on 788 delivery vehicles
– both sides have 1000s of warheads in storage that would not be available during the first exchange
– neither side has anything near a 20 megaton bomb
— largest Russian weapon is MIRVed SS18 ICBM, with 10 x 800 kilotons – 46 of them
— largest US Weapon is Sub launched Mk-5 MIRVed with 4 x 455 kilotons – 96 of them

Cruise missiles are the wildcard – they do not leave the atmosphere and return to avoid the friction and energy loss, so the ICBM can travel 10,000 miles… a B52 can do the same thing, but much slower. Cruise missiles are much shorter range and don’t carry as big a payload – but they fly low and could hit with little or no warning

We now return you to your regular programming speculating about whether Donald Trump paid taxes in 1996 and Kim Kardashian’s Jewelry

War Games

Thursday, July 7th, 2016

Vladimir Putin has cleared his schedule without an obvious reason. Stephen Cohen has made it increasingly clear that Putin feels he has little option but to directly engage the United States in directly military confrontation, because of both Syria and the NATO buildup of forces and supplies in the Balkans.


A lot of smart military minds sit around “war gaming” scenarios, trying to think what enemies might do, bounded by their capabilities, logistics, resources, alliances and tactics and explore scenarios until a theoretical outcome is reached.

Russian military vessels have been playing chicken with the USS Eisenhower Carrier Battle Group. Let’s war game. Assume these are dry runs for an actual attack on the USS Eisenhower and they succeed in sinking the aircraft carrier in a preemptive attack.

Now you are President Obama, spawn of a KGB breeding program. Your move.

What do you do?

NATO chief – Russia is behind the anti-fracking movement

Tuesday, April 12th, 2016

[Written June 29, 2014]

This is one of the longest standing beliefs of Rush Limbaugh – that Greenpeace and other environmental groups are motivated by forces wanting to destroy the US economic influence, not really protect the environment

Saudi Arabia and Turkey ready for war with Russia

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Saudi Arabia has moved aircraft to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, near the border with Syria. Saudi Arabia has stated clearly this is to topple Assad. In the event of a shooting war, Turkey has a lot of vulnerabilities, and Saudi Arabia has lots of slightly used military equipment, but few trained troops. Saudi Arabia still hasn’t conquered Yemen, which is right on its border.

So 2009 Nobel Peace Prize committee, how is that Obama prize looking now? China is also clearly making significant signs of preparing for imminent war in the South China Sea.

Back in the Reagan era, the US military was organized to be able to win a two front war – an invasion of Europe by Russia and an invasion of South Korea and/or Taiwan by China at the same time. In 2016, the military is focused on transgender bathrooms on submarines and global climate change.

I bought stock in US Steel (X) yesterday. It is up 14% on no particular news in one day. War is good for business.

Coming to a country near you

Wednesday, November 25th, 2015

Changes at the BBC World Service

Wednesday, November 25th, 2015

The BBC World Service (heard on many public radio stations) is a British government propaganda operation. Until 2010, it was funded directly by the Foreign Office, the equivalent of the US State department. The World Service is different than the domestic radio and TV that is funded by a yearly tax on owning a TV

Perhaps provoked by the instability around the world, the British Government just voted to restore direct government funding of the World Service

Official announcement

Truly bizarre music

Friday, October 23rd, 2015

The time was 1941 – the United States was staying out of the war in Europe. At home, the NAB was waging war on ASCAP, creating BMI to wrestle away control of musicians so radio controlled what they were paid. Established musicians refused to sign with BMI. Protest marches were held, unions grew stronger. Only fringe musicians signed with BMI and radio stations agreed to only play BMI licensed songs.

Glenn Miller had a #1 jazz hit during this period. It was a light hearted version of the Volga River Boatman’s song (referenced in the Caspian Sea post). It’s roughly the equivalent if Muzak has a version of Ave Maria

Are you Charlie? Really?

Thursday, January 15th, 2015

Other than the Freedom of Speech that you learned about, what do you know about Charlie Hebdo?

Alex Jones is promoting anothe of his crazy theories that the attack on Charlie Hebdo was actually an Israeli operation carried out by several stupid people tricked into doing it. Now that’s just crazy talk.

His theory is this is a warning to France (and Europe more generally) to warn them of the consequences of recognizing Palestine and granting them membership in the ICC to pursue war crimes against Israel in the recent events in Gaza.

So being the advocates of free expression, did Charlie Hebdo have opinions about Israel or Jewish people living in France?

“Free Speech” in France? seriously?

In the unlikely event that Alex Jones is onto something, could that explain why the Obama administration didn’t want anyone in Paris standing next to Benjamin Netanyahu in a photo op?

Ron Paul joined Alex on his show to talk about things. If a Republican House member faced prolonged press condemnation for talking to a group of “white supremicists” once, is there any chance at all they would be accused of anti-Semitism and Alex Jones will be exhibit #1?

George Soros on Ukraine (March 2014)

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014

In about the last 10 seconds, he slips in the phrase “Open Society”, which should make you tingle if you listen to Glenn Beck

What if there was a US / Russia war and Russia refused to play

Sunday, April 27th, 2014

I like to think out-of-the-box.

What if Vladimir Putin got on television today and said – “Russia surrenders”?

“I’ve ordered the Russian military to destroy all of our tanks, airplanes, ships, and submarines in place, and turn over launch authority of our nuclear weapons to the Secretary-General of the United Nations. I hereby dissolve the government of the country of Russia and turning over governing authority to the United Nations, from which we will resign our seat on the Security Council”

“Your Move”

What now?